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Argentina Inflation May 2024

Argentina: Inflation falls to lowest level since February in May

Inflation fell to 276.4% in May, following April’s 289.4%. May’s reading represented the lowest inflation rate since February.

The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 213.4% in May (April: 199.7%).

Finally, consumer prices rose 4.18% from the previous month in May, moderating from the 8.83% rise recorded in April and well below market expectations of 5.2%. Month-on-month price rises have consistently undershot market expectations in recent months, aided by the government’s austere fiscal stance. May’s result marked the weakest reading since January 2022.

Inflation could have peaked in May, and our Consensus is for it to ease later this year. However, even by end-2024 inflation will remain very high at well over 100%, spurred by currency weakening and the lifting of price controls.

On the latest data, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:

“The stabilization program continues to deliver better-than-expected results, with the currency appreciation and weaker consumption contributing to another sharp deceleration in monthly inflation. We recently lowered our inflation forecast to 140% for YE24 (from 160% previously).”

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