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Argentina Economic Activity December 2023

Argentina: Economic activity records largest decline in six months in December

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) dropped 4.5% in year-on-year terms in December, which was a deterioration from November’s 0.9% decrease. The result marked the worst reading since June. December’s notable downturn came on the back of contractions in the manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the agriculture sector accelerated. Lastly, activity in the hotels and restaurants sector lost steam, while transport and communications output decelerated.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 3.1% in December, which was below November’s 1.6% fall and marked the worst result since April 2020. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at an over two-year low of minus 1.5% in December, down from November’s minus 1.2%.

Commenting on the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez and Diego Ciongo said:

“We maintain our GDP growth forecast of -2.5% for 2024, affected by the expected drop in real wages and the sharp fiscal consolidation plan, but partially offset by the normalization of the agriculture sector after the severe drought in 2023.”

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