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Argentina Economic Activity April 2019

Argentina: Economic activity contracts at softest pace in one year and surprises markets on the upside

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 1.3% in annual terms in April, a much softer drop than the revised 6.9% fall recorded in March (previously reported: -6.8% year-on-year). The reading represents the best result since April 2018 and beat market expectations of a 3.1% drop.

April’s result saw broad-based improvements, and came largely on the back of a surge in agricultural and fishing production, both of which jumped by over a third. Moreover, the mining and quarrying sector swung from contraction to a mild increase, while most of the remaining sectors recorded less severe contractions compared with the previous month. On the other hand, the financial intermediation sector contracted at a somewhat sharper pace.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rose 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s revised 1.4% fall (previously reported: -1.3% month-on-month). Meanwhile, the annual average variation in economic activity inched down from a 4.8% contraction in March to a 4.9% fall in April.

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