Argentina: Economic activity contracts at softest pace in one year and surprises markets on the upside
June 27, 2019
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 1.3% in annual terms in April, a much softer drop than the revised 6.9% fall recorded in March (previously reported: -6.8% year-on-year). The reading represents the best result since April 2018 and beat market expectations of a 3.1% drop.
April’s result saw broad-based improvements, and came largely on the back of a surge in agricultural and fishing production, both of which jumped by over a third. Moreover, the mining and quarrying sector swung from contraction to a mild increase, while most of the remaining sectors recorded less severe contractions compared with the previous month. On the other hand, the financial intermediation sector contracted at a somewhat sharper pace.
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rose 0.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s revised 1.4% fall (previously reported: -1.3% month-on-month). Meanwhile, the annual average variation in economic activity inched down from a 4.8% contraction in March to a 4.9% fall in April.
Argentina GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 2.2% in 2020.