Argentina: Contraction in economic activity continues to moderate in August
October 26, 2018
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 1.6% in annual terms in August, a much softer drop than the 2.7% fall recorded in July. Although the reading marked the fifth consecutive month of decline in year-on-year terms , the rate of contraction eased for the second consecutive month.
August’s contraction came on the back of significant declines in industrial output, as well as severely restricted trade and transport activities. That said, the performance of the industrial, trade and transport sectors were less negative than seen in the previous month. Moreover, the agricultural sector swung from a sharp contraction in July to moderate growth, while the fishing sector gained considerable steam and activity in the financial intermediation sector continued to expand solidly.
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity jumped 1.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in August, slightly lower than the 1.4% increase in July and marking the second consecutive month-on-month rise.
Finally, average economic activity decreased to 0.8% in August from 1.3% in July.
Argentina GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.1% in 2019, down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before returning to growth at 2.3% in 2020.