FocusEconomics is proud to release the Commodity Winners of the 2026 Analyst Forecast Awards – the first results in our 10th Anniversary edition. 

Every year, we ask the same question: who got it right? 

Forecasting commodity prices – oil, gold, wheat, lithium, natural gas – is one of the most demanding disciplines in economic analysis. Markets are shaped by geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions, policy decisions, and forces that no model can fully anticipate. Getting it right once might be luck. Getting it right consistently, year after year, across dozens of commodities, is something else entirely. 

The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards exist to find those analysts, and to recognize them publicly. 

We are pleased to announce the Commodity Winners of the 2026 Analyst Forecast Awards, the first release of this year. This year carries special significance. The 2026 edition marks the 10th Anniversary of the FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards. This year, we’re celebrating a whole decade of recognizing excellence in forecasting and highlighting the institutions that get it right.

How the Awards Work 

FocusEconomics runs a monthly survey of over 1,200 economists from leading banks, financial institutions, and research organizations around the world. Each month, these contributors submit their price forecasts for a wide range of commodities and macroeconomic indicators. Those submissions form the basis of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – an aggregated view of where markets are heading, used by corporations, investors, governments, and central banks globally. 

The awards take that same dataset and ask a more difficult question: not what the Consensus said, but who individually came closest to the truth. 

To determine the winners, FocusEconomics calculates the average absolute error for each contributing institution: the difference between what they forecast and what the commodity price actually averaged across the year. We do this across every forecast submitted over a 22-month assessment window. 

One deliberate feature of the methodology deserves particular mention: we apply equal weight to every forecast, regardless of when in the cycle it was submitted. A prediction made in January 2024, nearly two years before the outturn, counts exactly the same as one made in October 2025, when the answer was already largely in view. This matters. It means the awards genuinely reward analysts who form considered, well-reasoned views early, not those who simply revise their numbers as the year unfolds. The institution with the lowest average error wins. 

Why It Matters 

Commodity prices impact every corner of the global economy. They determine what businesses pay for raw materials, what consumers pay for gas and at the supermarket, and how governments balance their budgets. When oil prices spike, inflation follows. When metal prices fall, mining investment contracts. When agricultural prices become volatile, food security becomes a political issue. 

In this context, an accurate commodity price forecast is far more than an intellectual achievement. It is a practical tool. 

Procurement teams at large corporations use commodity forecasts to lock in supply contracts at the right moment and hedge exposure to price movements. Fund managers use them to position portfolios across energy, mining, and agricultural sectors. Risk departments at banks use them to stress-test lending books. Central banks use them to anticipate inflationary pressures and calibrate monetary policy. 

When analysts forecast accurately and consistently, they add measurable value to every one of those decisions. That is what we are recognizing with these awards. Not just analytical excellence in the abstract, but the real-world impact of getting the numbers right. 

Ten Years of the Awards 

When the FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards launched in 2016, 19 commodities were covered with a relatively small pool of contributing institutions. The concept was simple: take the data we were already collecting, assess it rigorously, and publish the results transparently. 

A decade later, the Awards cover 32 commodities across Energy, Metals, and Agriculture, alongside an Overall category to recognize institutions with the broadest forecasting accuracy across the commodity spectrum. Our panel has grown to include over 1200 economists from institutions spanning every major financial center, from global investment banks to independent research boutiques, government bodies to regional specialists. 

What has changed most, though, is the competition. The quality of commodity forecasting across the FocusEconomics panel has risen significantly over ten years. Data availability has improved. Methodologies have become more sophisticated. And the community of analysts contributing to the Consensus Forecast has deepened in both expertise and geographic diversity. Winning today is meaningfully harder than it was in 2016 – which is precisely what makes this year’s results worth celebrating. 

---

The 2026 Commodity Award Winners

Overall

The Overall award recognizes institutions with the highest forecasting accuracy across the broadest range of commodities.

Rank	Institution	Winner / Team
🥇 1st	S&P Global Energy	Research Team
🥈 2nd	CRM AgriCommodities	Research Team
🥉 3rd	BBVA Research	Research Team

Energy

Crude Oil (Brent, WTI, Dubai Fateh) · World Crude Oil Production · Gasoline RBOB · Natural Gas (Henry Hub & Dutch TTF) · LNG JKM

Commodity	🥇 1st Place	🥈 2nd Place	🥉 3rd Place
Crude Oil – Brent	Julius Baer Norbert Ruecker	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team	4intelligence Research Team
Crude Oil – WTI	Julius Baer Norbert Ruecker	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team	Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Commodities’ Team
Crude Oil – Dubai Fateh	Panmure Liberum Research Team	EIU Mathew Sherwood	Polish Economic Institute Research Team
Crude Oil Production – World	EIU Mathew Sherwood	E2 Economia Research Team	—*
Gasoline – RBOB	Goldman Sachs Research Team	BMI / FitchSolutions BMI Research Team	4intelligence Research Team
Natural Gas – Dutch TTF	Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Commodities’ Team	BBVA Research Carlos Castellano	Polish Economic Institute Research Team
Natural Gas – Henry Hub	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	RBC Capital Markets Research Team	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team
LNG – JKM	OCE Australian Govt Mark Gibbons	Natixis Joel Hancock	ANZ Research Team

* No eligible candidate met the minimum submission requirements for this position.

Metals

Aluminium · Cobalt · Coking Coal · Copper · Gold · Iron Ore · Lead · Lithium · Nickel · Palladium · Platinum · Silver · Steel (HRC Europe & USA) · Thermal Coal · Tin · Zinc

Commodity	🥇 1st Place	🥈 2nd Place	🥉 3rd Place
Aluminium LME	Emirates NBD Edward Bell	EIU Commodities Team	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini
Cobalt	Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Commodities’ Team	RBC Capital Markets Research Team	Noah Sieberana Eshaan Singh, Rene Hochreiter
Coking Coal	ANZ Research Team	OCE Australian Govt Ryan Spencer	BMO Capital Markets Research Team
Copper LME	EIU Commodities Team	BICE Inversiones Research Team	Scotiabank Research Team
Gold	ANZ Research Team	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton
Iron Ore – Australian fines	BMI / FitchSolutions BMI Research Team	BMO Capital Markets Research Team	Desjardins Group Marc-Antoine Dumont
Lead	E2 Economia Research Team	ANZ Research Team	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team
Lithium Carbonate 99.5%	Goldman Sachs Research Team	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton	BMI / FitchSolutions BMI Research Team
Nickel	Panmure Liberum Research Team	RBC Capital Markets Research Team	Goldman Sachs Research Team
Palladium	Panmure Liberum Research Team	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team
Platinum	Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Commodities’ Team	Emirates NBD Edward Bell	BMO Capital Markets Research Team
Silver	ANZ Research Team	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini
Steel – HRC Europe	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	Banca Intesa Beograd Research Team	MEPS Amit Kumar
Steel – HRC USA	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	BMO Capital Markets Research Team	Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Commodities’ Team
Thermal Coal	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team	EIU Commodities Team	E2 Economia Research Team
Tin 99.85%	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team	Pezco Economics Helcio Takeda	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini
Zinc 99.995%	Pezco Economics Helcio Takeda	Itaú Unibanco Macro Team	Scotiabank Peru Katherine Salazar

Agriculture

Cocoa · Coffee Arabica · Maize/Corn · Soybeans · Sugar · Wheat

Commodity	🥇 1st Place	🥈 2nd Place	🥉 3rd Place
Cocoa – ICCO	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton	BMI / FitchSolutions BMI Research Team
Coffee – Arabica	Intesa Sanpaolo Daniela Corsini	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton	E2 Economia Research Team
Maize / Corn – CBOT	CRM AgriCommodities Research Team	BMI / FitchSolutions BMI Research Team	Moody’s Analytics Brendan LaCerda
Soybeans – CBOT	S&P Global Energy Research Team	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton	Itaú Unibanco Macro Team
Sugar	ISGR Research Team	Banca Intesa Beograd Research Team	E2 Economia Research Team
Wheat – CBOT	Citigroup Global Mkts Max Layton	Capital Economics Capital Economics Research Team	S&P Global Energy Research Team

More Results to Come

The Commodity Awards are the first of several to be released. In the weeks ahead, we will be announcing winners across macroeconomic indicators – GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Fiscal Balance, and Current Account – for over 100 countries worldwide. 

Follow FocusEconomics to receive each announcement as it is published.