Argentina Trade

Merchandise trade surplus increases in April

Latest reading: In April, the trade balance was USD +2.7 billion, following a USD +2.6 billion figure in the prior month and well above market expectations. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +18.3 billion. Merchandise exports increased 33.6% in year-on-year terms in April, following a 30.9% rise in the previous month and reaching a record high. April's reading was the strongest since April 2022. Energy exports rose the most, in part due to higher global prices, with agricultural and manufactured exports recording softer yet still-robust expansions. Merchandise imports were down 4.0% in year-on-year terms in April, coming on the back of a 1.6% rise in the previous month.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “We revised our 2026 trade surplus forecast to USD 18 billion, from USD 14 billion in our previous scenario, reflecting strongerthanexpected readings in recent months. While exports should maintain solid momentum—supported by a favorable outlook for soybean and corn harvests, alongside firmer oil prices—the ongoing recovery in imports is set to partially offset these gains. Having said that, a largerthanexpected trade surplus should allow the central bank to scale up its FX purchases, which have already reached USD 8.5 billion yeartodate.”

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