Consumption in Poland

Poland Consumption | Economic News & Forecasts

Poland - Consumption

GDP growth accelerates in Q1

GDP growth accelerated to 8.5% year on year in the first quarter, from 7.6% in Q4 2021. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth rose to 2.5% in Q1, compared to the previous quarter's 1.8% expansion.

The improvement in the year-on-year print was spearheaded by a sustained accumulation of inventories. Meanwhile, private consumption growth slowed to 6.6% year on year in Q1, from an 8.0% expansion in Q4. Fixed investment growth came in at 4.3% in the quarter (Q4: +5.2% yoy). Moreover, public consumption growth decelerated to 0.6% (Q4: +4.0% yoy).

On the external front, exports of goods and services growth slowed to 2.0% in Q1, marking the weakest result since Q2 2020 (Q4: +6.1% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth softened to 8.8% in Q1 (Q4: +12.2% yoy), marking the slowest reading since Q1 2021.

Commenting on the outlook, Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak, economists at ING, stated:

“The coming quarters should bring a slowdown of GDP from 8.5% yoy to about 2% yoy in Q4 2022. However, the high starting point implies that average annual GDP will be about 4.7% higher this year than in 2021. The main factors driving GDP growth down are the supply constraints, i.e. potential material shortages and supply disruptions due to the war and zero-Covid policy in China, uncertainty undermining private investment, and weaker exports not only to eastern trade partners but to western partners as well (eurozone).”

FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to expand 4.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2023, our panelists see growth at 4.1%.

Poland - Consumption Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.0  3.9  4.5  4.2  3.9  

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