Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

September 14, 2021

The economy should have rebounded robustly in the second quarter, supported by a low base effect and healthier foreign demand. In Q2, industrial manufacturing production expanded at a double-digit pace, the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since January 2020 in June and merchandise export growth surged across the quarter. Turning to Q3, momentum is likely softening as the base effect fades, but economic activity should be strengthening in sequential terms. Solid progress on the vaccination front—169.8 doses had been administered per 100 people of the total population as of 12 September—coupled with declining new Covid-19 cases has allowed authorities to ease restrictions in Q3, which should be supporting the recovery in household spending. Furthermore, export growth hit the highest level in at least 30 years in July, boding well for the external sector.

Uruguay Economic Growth

The economy is seen expanding this year as stronger investment supports domestic demand and the external sector benefits from healthier foreign demand and higher commodity prices. However, fiscal prudence and lingering uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 2.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2022.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20616,68415,938
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.158.556.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.60.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.50.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.71.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.7-3.5-2.9-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.566.3
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.10.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.42.9
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.511.5
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.18.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-5.8
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.770.876.2

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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