Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

May 3, 2022

The economy has slowed further this year, after sluggish consumption growth underpinned a deceleration in activity in Q4 2021. In Q1 2022, industrial production growth slumped in January–February, while retail sales growth nearly halved in the same period, hinting at cooling private spending, even as the unemployment rate fell markedly when compared to the same period in 2021. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI dipped to an 11-month low in March, suggesting private sector conditions softened further at the tail-end of the quarter. The slowdown seemingly carried over into Q2, as reflected in deteriorating business and consumer confidence in April, with soaring inflation due to the war in Ukraine likely hindering domestic demand. More positively, on 22 April, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Greece’s credit rating from ‘BB’ to ‘BB+’ with a stable outlook, boding well for the investment climate.

Greece Economic Growth

GDP growth is forecast to cool this year, partly due to the deteriorating external backdrop. Businesses and consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, especially spiraling inflation, although relatively robust public finances should help absorb the shock. Meanwhile, the easing of Covid-19 restrictions bodes well for tourism. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.6%.

Greece Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.910.810.810.710.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,32516,36616,73717,19717,497
GDP (EUR bn)177176180185187
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.31.41.91.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.51.60.41.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.30.10.90.90.7
Investment (annual variation in %)0.64.69.4-12.04.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.8-1.96.98.74.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.17.43.02.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.32.63.91.6-0.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-0.61.31.40.8
Unemployment Rate25.023.621.519.317.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.60.50.71.01.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)176179176181177
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.31.00.61.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.10.01.10.80.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.2-5.75.34.30.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-23.62.024.7-23.649.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8-1.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5-22.8

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Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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