China Investment October 2021


China: Nominal fixed investment is muted in October

November 15, 2021

Nominal urban fixed asset investment grew 6.1% in year-to-date terms in October (September: +7.3%). The outturn marked the worst reading since December 2020. Looking at the details of the release, the tertiary sector expanded at a slower pace in October, and the secondary sector also increased at a softer pace.

On a monthly basis, nominal urban fixed asset investment rose 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, matching September’s uptick.

The ongoing picture is one of weak investment, amid retrenchment in the housing sector and regulatory uncertainty due to the government’s clamp down on the technology and other sectors. Going forward, these factors could continue to weigh, although high-end manufacturing investment should provide some support.

Our panelists see nominal fixed investment rising 5.0% in 2022, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2023.


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China Investment Chart

China Investment October 2021

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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