Tunisia Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)

The economy grew at a slower rate of 1.6% in Q4 (Q3: 2.9% yoy): the agricultural and hospitality sectors grew at faster rates; the construction and mining sectors contracted; and growth in commerce slowed. The Q4 print means the economy grew 2.4% in 2022 as a whole, which would be the fourth weakest growth figure in MENA, according to our latest forecasts. Heading into the new year, all eyes are on the IMF, which is yet to give final approval to the preliminary agreement for a USD 1.9 billion rescue package that was reached in October. In mid-February, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said that “very good progress” had been made on the steps preceding program approval, following cuts to the public sector wage bill and tax increases announced in the 2023 budget. Tunisia’s dollar bonds rose by over 5% following her comments.