Economy grows at softest pace since Q1 2021 in Q4
GDP growth slowed markedly to 2.0% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 3.6% in the third quarter. Q4’s reading marked the slowest expansion since Q1 2021.
Private consumption fell 1.5% in the fourth quarter, which contrasted the third quarter’s 0.9% expansion. Government consumption dropped at the sharpest pace since Q3 2022, contracting 1.6% (Q3: +0.1% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth rose to 4.9% in Q4, from the 2.0% expansion recorded in the previous quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to 2.0% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q3 2020 (Q3: +6.9% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth softened to 0.2% in Q4 (Q3: +6.0% yoy), marking the worst performance in over two years.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 2.4% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter’s 1.0% increase. Q4’s reading marked the largest contraction since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Q2 2020.
Commenting on the outlook, Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING, stated:
“For the whole of 2023, we expect GDP growth in the vicinity of 1%, which until recently seemed an optimistic assumption. But the forecast is supported by improving global economic sentiment and less pessimistic expectations for the economic situation in Europe than seen earlier.”
Poland Disposable Income (ann. var. %) Data
|Disposable Income (ann. var. %)||3.1||3.3||5.2||4.2||-1.3|