Merchandise exports growth hits over one-year high in June

Latest reading: Merchandise exports jumped 26.1% in annual terms in June, following May’s 15.5% upturn. June’s figure marked the fastest outturn since April 2024 and was buoyed by surging electronics shipments, which made up more than half of export earnings. Gold shipments rose to 130.9% (May: +102.2% yoy) as global safe haven demand strengthened. Regarding key trading partners, growth in exports to the U.S. surged from 3.6% in May to 35.2% in June, likely reflecting export frontloading ahead of higher U.S. tariffs expected from 7 August. Meanwhile, merchandise imports jumped 10.8% over the same month last year in June (May: -1.1% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 4.0 billion shortfall in June (May 2025: USD 3.6 billion deficit; June 2024: USD 4.3 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 53.2 billion deficit in June, compared to the USD 53.6 billion deficit in May.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Philippine trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 6 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Philippine trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Philippine trade projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Philippine trade forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.