Inflation rises more than expected in May

Latest reading: Inflation jumped to 3.0% in May from April’s 2.5%, overshooting both market and Norges Bank expectations and remaining above the latter’s 2.0% target. Looking at the details of the release, food and housing costs accelerated sharply, outweighing a softer rise in transport prices. Still, the trend was unchanged, with annual average inflation coming in at April’s 2.7% in May. Meanwhile, core inflation—the Norges Bank’s preferred gauge of price pressures—dropped to 2.8% in May from April's 3.0%, below market and Norges Bank projections. Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.36% over the previous month in May, cooling from the 0.66% increase seen in April.

Outlook: Our panelists see inflation trending down through Q4 and averaging below 2024’s level this year as a whole, kept in check by elevated interest rates, easing food prices, softer wage growth and a high base of comparison. Still, price pressures should remain above the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target for the fifth consecutive year in 2025 due to healthier private spending growth. Premature monetary policy easing and a weaker krone are upside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Norwegian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Norwegian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Norwegian inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Norwegian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.