Kenya Inflation

Inflation ebbs in June from the prior month

Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 6.4% on a year-on-year basis in June, following a 6.7% increase in the previous month, coming in below market expectations and marking the first decline in four months. Relative to the previous month's figures, there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+8.6% in annual terms vs +9.4% in May) and transportation (+16.1% vs +16.5% in May). Finally, the variations in clothing and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels were the same as in the prior month (+2.0% and +3.4%, respectively). Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.23% in June on a month-on-month basis, following a 1.58% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: On the inflation outlook, Oxford Economics’ Jacques Nel commented: “The peace agreement between the US and Iran has resulted in a downward shift in our oil price assumptions. Accordingly, we have adjusted Kenya’s price inflation forecast to incorporate lower domestic fuel prices relative to the previous baseline. Inflation is now projected to average 6.3% this year, down from our previous projection of 6.6%.”

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