Economy posts best first-quarter reading in over a decade in Q1

GDP growth flies past trend: The economy rallied at the outset of 2025, expanding 5.6% in the first quarter and clocking the best first-quarter reading since 2012. Q1’s result was an improvement from 2024’s 4.8% rise and easily outpaced the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 4.5%.

Hydrocarbons production push underpins the upturn: From a production point of view, the upturn was spearheaded by a 6.6% expansion in the industrial sector in Q1 (2024: +2.8%). Kazakhstan doubled down on efforts to ramp up hydrocarbons output—despite pressure from OPEC+ to bring crude oil production down to quota—hitting consecutive record highs in February and March and driving a faster rise in mining and quarrying. Further impetus stemmed from sharper increases in manufacturing and construction, which outweighed declining water and energy supply. Elsewhere in the economy, the picture was less upbeat: Heat waves dented crop yields, and softer real wage growth plus interest rate hikes hit domestic trade growth, detracting from the overall reading. Still, faster momentum in the hospitality and transport sectors capped the slowdown in the services sector.

Economy to keep a healthy head of steam in 2025: Our panelists expect the economy to accelerate for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q2 but then see momentum decelerating in Q3 before dipping below trend at the tail end of 2025. As a result, our Consensus is for overall growth in 2025 to edge up from 2024, benefiting from fiscal stimulus, and stronger exports amid higher oil and gas output. Pressure from OPEC+ on Kazakhstan to lower oil output—which currently exceeds its quota—plus rising global economic uncertainty denting external demand and prices for hydrocarbons are downside risks, while regional peace talks are key to track.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 8 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Kazakhstani government consumption.

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