GDP in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

Kazakhstan - GDP

GDP expands for first time in over a year in H1 amid a favorable base effect

According to a preliminary reading, GDP expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the January–June period, rebounding from the 1.4% contraction recorded in Q1. H1's reading was the best since Q1 2020, albeit largely flattered by a favorable base effect.

Looking at the details, the services sector—accounting for roughly 50% of GDP in H1—led the uptick, growing 1.7% (Q1: -3.2% yoy), amid buoyant trade and improving dynamics in the transportation sector. Meanwhile, the industrial sector grew 1.3%, up from Q1’s 0.1% expansion, mainly due to a less pronounced fall in mining and quarrying output, as manufacturing lost steam. Lastly, the construction sector remained solid, albeit growing at a slower pace of 11.9% (2020: +13.1%).

Moving forward to Q3, GDP should keep benefiting from a favorable base effect, with the short-term economic indicator putting economic growth from January–July at 3.7%. Some headwinds may stem from tighter monetary policy, however.

Commenting on the outlook for Q3, Artem Zaigrin, chief economist at SOVA Capital, said:

“The country has returned to the red zone due to the dramatic spike in cases in July-August. Despite the outbreak of the Delta strain, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery has gained pace […]. The withdrawal of pension savings has supported the pickup in loan growth.”

Analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics see the economy expanding 3.8% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.3% in 2022.

Kazakhstan - GDP Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.2  1.1  4.1  4.1  4.5  

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Kazakhstan GDP Chart

Kazakhstan GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.

Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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