Inflation in India
India - Inflation (end of period)
Consumer price inflation accelerates in February but remains low
In February, consumer prices rose 0.22% compared to the previous month, which contrasts the revised 0.36% decrease in January (previously reported: -0.29% month-on-month). Propping up prices in February was more expensive housing, whereas most other price categories were little changed in the month.
Consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.6% in February, up from 2.0% in January and above market analyst expectations of 2.4%. However, this inflation rate is still towards the lower end of the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2.0% to 6.0%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy products, rose to between 5.3% and 5.4% in February, up from between 5.2% and 5.3% in January. This latest uptick in inflation could partly heed off calls for the Reserve Bank of India to reduce rates again at its next monetary policy meeting on 2–4 April, after raising them on 7 February. However, recent data has shown that commercial banks have not reduced the interest rates charged to customers much since 7 February, prompting speculation the Reserve Bank could lean towards another cut in April to further stimulate economic growth.
Wholesale prices increased 0.3% month-on-month in February, contrasting the revised 0.4% fall in January (previously reported: -0.7% mom). Higher prices in February came on the back of more expensive fuel and power. On the other hand, food prices fell. Wholesale price inflation accelerated to 2.9% in February, up from 2.8% in January, and annual average wholesale price inflation ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%.
India Inflation Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 4.2% in FY 2018, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2019, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 4.4%. Meanwhile, our panel projects wholesale inflation of 3.9% for FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s report. In FY 2019, our panel foresees wholesale inflation averaging 3.6%.
India - Inflation (eop) Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||8.2||5.3||4.8||3.9||4.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
India Inflation (eop) Chart
Source: Reserve Bank of India of China and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||7.51||-0.04 %||Mar 11|
|Exchange Rate||69.85||-0.09 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||37,054||-0.08 %||Mar 11|
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March 15, 2019
Merchandise export growth in annual terms decelerated to 2.4% in February from 3.7% in January.
March 14, 2019
In February, consumer prices rose 0.22% compared to the previous month, which contrasts the revised 0.36% decrease in January (previously reported: -0.29% month-on-month).
March 12, 2019
Annual industrial production growth decelerated to 1.7% in January from a revised 2.4% in December (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year).
March 5, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market improved to 53.8 in February from 53.6 in January, rising further above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. The services PMI increased to 52.5 in February from 52.2 in January on the back of a faster increase in new business orders.
February 28, 2019
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2018—which ran from October to December—GDP grew 6.6% compared to the same quarter a year earlier.