Egypt Inflation

Inflation decelerates in June from May

Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 14.3% on a year-on-year basis in June, following a 14.6% increase in the previous month and coming in below market expectations. Relative to the prior month's data, there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages—the largest component in the consumer price index basket—(+5.4% in annual terms vs +7.6% in May) and transportation (+24.5% vs +24.7% in May). In contrast, price pressures were higher for housing and utilities in June (+41.1% vs +40.4% in May). Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 14.3% on a year-on-year basis in June, following a 13.8% rise in the previous month. Lastly, consumer prices declined 0.41% in June in month-on-month terms, following a 1.64% rise in the previous month.

Panelist insight: On the inflation outlook, EIU analysts commented: “The inflation rate is unlikely to fall within the central bank's target of 7% ±2 percentage points until the first half of 2027, owing to regulated price increases, currency pass-through effects, higher global energy prices and disruption to Gulf shipping, owing to the Iran conflict. Bringing underlying services inflation down decisively would also require a tighter monetary stance than we expect. Consequently, we forecast that inflation will average 13.9% in 2026 and then ease more meaningfully, to 9.5% in 2027.”

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