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Vietnam GDP Q4 2023

Vietnam: GDP growth records best reading since Q3 2022 in the fourth quarter

GDP growth accelerated to 6.7% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 5.5% in the third quarter. Q4’s reading marked the strongest expansion since Q3 2022 and beat market expectations. As a result, the economy registered 5.0% GDP growth over 2023 as a whole—above the ASEAN average but notably below the government’s 6.5% target.

Industrial output growth hit an over one-year high of 7.4% in the final quarter, picking up from the third quarter’s 5.2%. This was likely linked to improved overseas goods demand, as merchandise exports returned to growth in Q4 for the first time in over a year. The expansion in services improved to 7.3% in Q4 (Q3: +6.4% yoy). Meanwhile, agriculture growth ebbed to 4.1% in Q4, from 4.3% recorded in the prior quarter.

Our Consensus is for economic activity to accelerate in 2024 from 2023, as a result of improved industrial production and exports, with GDP growth likely to be among the fastest in ASEAN.

On their outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said:

“In reflection of the strong Q4 outcome, to be offset partly in Q1 2024 on pullback in health services, we raise our 2024 real GDP forecast to 6.3% from 6.0%.”

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