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United Kingdom GDP October 2023

United Kingdom: Economic activity deteriorates in October

GDP slid 0.3% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in October, which contrasted September’s 0.2% increase and market expectations of a flat reading. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP was stable in August–October, matching July–September’s figure.

Looking at the details of the release, October’s drop was driven by falls in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors.

Our Consensus is for the economy to stagnate in quarterly terms in Q4, before a sluggish recovery sets in next year. However, the UK is forecast to see the worst growth in the G7 over 2024 as a whole, weighed on by muted investment and consumer spending amid higher inflation and interest rates than the G7 average.

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