Ukraine Inflation April 2021

Ukraine

Ukraine: Inflation decreases in April

May 7, 2021

Consumer prices rose 0.70% from the previous month in April, which was below March's 1.70% increase. April's result marked the softest rise in prices since September 2020. The reading was driven by moderating price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transportation.

Inflation came in at 8.4% in April, which was down from March’s 8.5%. Annual average inflation rose to 4.4% in April (March: 3.9%). Core inflation rose to 6.3% in April from the previous month's 5.9% increase.

Commenting on the result and the monetary policy outlook, Andrew Matheny and Tadas Gedminas, economists at Goldman Sachs, said:

“While inflation edged lower on the month, we forecast additional increases in the months ahead, with upside risks from food inflation due to the continued increase in global soft commodity prices. However, given that the NBU projects inflation peaking near +9.6%yoy in Q3, while shifting its guidance for unchanged rates after it delivered 150bp of rate hikes to 7.5% in the last two MPC meetings, we do not think stronger inflation prints in the near-term will warrant a meaningful change in the Board's stance.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2021 at 6.4%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the panel sees year-end inflation at 5.4%.


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Ukraine Inflation April 2021 1

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.


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