Turkey Economic Outlook
May 12, 2020The economy seemed to firm up in the first two months of the year before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, with industrial production and retail sales growing strongly in January–February. Retail trade like benefited from strong consumer credit growth in the quarter and a slight downtick in unemployment through February, while the industrial sector benefited from sturdy manufacturing activity. However, the economy has since received a severe blow due to the health crisis and containment measures: The manufacturing PMI fell to a record low in April after entering contractionary territory in March, while the sector’s capacity utilization rate fell to an 11-year low in April. Moreover, business sentiment soured in the same month to the lowest level since February 2009, and consumer confidence fell to a survey-record low. More positively, the gradual lifting of restrictions from May should revive activity somewhat.
Turkey Economic GrowthGDP is expected to shrink notably this year owing to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports and tourism are likely to suffer and weaken the country’s external position, while domestic containment measures will limit economic activity at home. While fiscal stimulus could soften the impact somewhat, a recession looks inevitable. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to contract 3.2% in 2020, which is down 2.9 percentage points from last month, and to expand 4.7% in 2021.
Turkey Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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Turkey Economic News
July 3, 2020
Consumer prices rose 1.13% in June over the last month, coming in below May's 1.36% rise.
July 1, 2020
Operating conditions in the Turkish manufacturing sector improved in June for the first time in four months, with the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.9 from 40.9 in May.
June 25, 2020
The Central Bank stood pat at its 25 June meeting and kept the one-week repo rate at 8.25%—the lowest level since before the country’s 2018 currency crisis.
June 22, 2020
Consumer confidence rose to 62.6 in June from May's 59.5.
June 12, 2020
Turkey’s current account deficit widened markedly from USD 0.5 billion in April 2019 to USD 5.1 billion in April 2020 (March 2020: USD -4.8 billion).