Turkey Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017The tailwinds that boosted GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year are starting to fade, and the country’s structural imbalances are becoming more acute. Furthermore, the economy is showing signs of overheating: Inflation reached a nine-year high in October, and the cumulative current account deficit widened to a two-year high in September. The widening current account deficit has become increasingly difficult to finance, which has in turn resulted in a steady drawdown of foreign reserves since the start of the year. In addition to weakening economic fundamentals, the ongoing diplomatic spat between Turkey and the U.S., as well as President Erdogan’s renewed dispute with Central Bank officials, caused the lira to weaken to record lows and Turkey’s 10-year bond yields to tumble in late November.
Turkey Economic GrowthThe government’s attempt to limit policy stimulus next year ahead of the 2019 election cycle and an unfavorable base effect will lead GDP growth to moderate in 2018. The FocusEconomics panel expects growth to come in at 3.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The risk of a sustained depreciation of the lira and unanchored inflation expectations are, however, weighing heavily on the outlook. Our panel expects growth of 3.7% in 2019.
Turkey Economy Data
5 years of Turkey economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||11.68||-0.09 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||3.85||-0.85 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||105,304||1.41 %||Dec 06|
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Turkey Economic News
December 11, 2017
The current account balance recorded a USD 3.8 billion deficit in October, a sizeable widening of the gap compared to the USD 1.6 billion shortfall recorded in October last year.
December 11, 2017
Accommodative credit conditions, enhanced external competitiveness and a positive base effect fueled economic growth in the third quarter.
December 8, 2017
Industrial output growth in October suggests momentum in the Turkish economy persisted at the outset of the fourth quarter.
December 4, 2017
Consumer prices surprised to the upside for a second consecutive month in November, jumping 1.49% from the previous month, above market expectations of a 1.10% increase.
December 1, 2017
The manufacturing sector firmed in November, bouncing marginally from October’s six-month low.