Turkey Economic Outlook
January 14, 2020The economic landscape has improved somewhat in recent months as the economy returned to growth on an annual basis for the first time in a year in the third quarter. This came on the back of solid public consumption growth and a revival of private consumption, buttressed by a strong credit impulse amid laxer monetary policy. However, recovering domestic activity led to a surge in imports in the quarter, and the external sector consequently weighed on the economy. Turning to the final quarter of 2019, annual economic growth should have accelerated further, partly due to a supportive base effect. Moreover, annual industrial output and retail sales grew at strong clips in October, while business sentiment returned to optimism in the quarter. Less positively, despite a slight improvement relative to Q3 the manufacturing PMI remained below the 50-threshold, signifying tough operating conditions in the sector.
Turkey Economic GrowthThis year the economy should continue growing owing to a weak base effect and the impetus provided by looser monetary policy. However, as domestic demand gains traction, the external sector will likely weigh on the economy as imports outweigh exports. Moreover, risks remain tilted to the downside as geopolitical tensions and market volatility linger. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.8% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 3.1% in 2021.
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|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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Turkey Economic News
January 23, 2020
Consumer sentiment was unchanged in Turkey at the start of the new year, as the index remained at 58.8 in January.
January 16, 2020
At its 16 January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Turkey’s Central Bank slashed its one-week repo rate again, this time by 75 basis points to 11.25%.
January 14, 2020
Industrial production grew a calendar-adjusted 5.1% year-on-year in November, up from October’s revised 3.9% expansion (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year).
January 13, 2020
The current account balance of Turkey swung from a USD 1.0 billion surplus in November 2018 to a USD 0.5 billion deficit in November (October: USD +1.6 billion), which marked the first result in the red in five months.
January 3, 2020
Consumer prices in Turkey rose 0.74% month-on-month in December, notably above the 0.38% monthly price increase recorded in November.