Turkey Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019Incoming data for Q1 remains weak. Consumer sentiment fell again in February on a pessimistic outlook on the economy. Coupled with the softest growth in consumer credit in over 16 years in January, this bodes ill for household consumption in Q1. Moreover, business confidence stayed pessimistic and the manufacturing PMI remained entrenched in contractionary territory in February. This follows a likely weak outturn in Q4 2018. Private consumption suffered from high inflation and interest rates, as highlighted by the steepest retail sales contraction in December since current records began. Moreover, in the same month, the current account balance registered the first deficit in five months on lower goods exports. Against this backdrop, parliament recently granted President Erdogan emergency powers over the economy, in a move that raises governance risks given the higher concentration of power.
Turkey Economic GrowthThe economy seems set to remain fragile this year as restrictive financial conditions dent domestic demand. Nevertheless, a likely recovery in H2 should give the Central Bank room to spur domestic demand, while the external sector should provide further support. Risks relating to currency volatility and a possible renewal of geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to shrink 0.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.0% in 2020.
Turkey Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||15.49||-0.09 %||Mar 20|
|Exchange Rate||5.42||-0.85 %||Mar 20|
|Stock Market||103,310||1.41 %||Mar 20|
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Turkey Economic News
March 21, 2019
The consumer confidence index, published by the Statistical Institute in cooperation with the Central Bank, increased from 57.8 in February to 59.4 in March.
Turkey: Industrial production contracts in January in annual terms, but sequential data paints a slightly more positive picture
March 14, 2019
Industrial output dropped 7.3% in January in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms.
March 11, 2019
The current account balance recorded a USD 0.8 billion deficit in January, smaller than December’s revised USD 1.5 billion deficit (previously reported: USD 1.4 billion deficit) and down markedly from the USD 7.0 billion deficit recorded in the same month a year prior.
March 11, 2019
According to data released by Turkstat on 11 March, the Turkish economy shrank 3.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, with the aftereffects of the currency crisis cooling activity.
March 6, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting on 6 March, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 24.00% for the fourth consecutive meeting. The Bank’s decision to keep rates at their current high level was motivated by a desire to support the lira and ensure that price pressures continue to ebb.