Turkey Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Available data continues to point to an economic recovery in the third quarter. Industrial output rebounded strongly in July–August on an annual basis from the steep fall logged in Q2, amid surging manufacturing production, which grew at the sharpest rate in over two years in August. Moreover, business confidence swung to optimistic territory in the quarter as the general business climate improved and export expectations turned rosy. However, household spending likely remained relatively subdued, despite consumer credit growth picking up notable steam in the quarter, as consumer confidence did not improve and inflation remained elevated. In the political arena, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak presented the new economic program for 2021–2023. The program—which envisages 5.8% GDP growth next year—focuses on strengthening innovation, value-added production and exports to drive growth.
Turkey Economic GrowthFollowing the sharpest contraction in over a decade this year, the economy should recover notably next year as the impact of the pandemic and associated containment measures fades and domestic and foreign demand strengthen. That said, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside amid lingering currency weakness, elevated inflation and a fragile external position. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 4.3% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 4.1% in 2022.
Turkey Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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Turkey Economic News
November 24, 2020
Business confidence dropped to 103.9 in November, down from October's 108.1.
November 20, 2020
Consumer confidence fell to 80.1 in November from October's 81.9.
Turkey: Central Bank delivers biggest interest rate hike in over two years; shifts to more conventional policy stance
November 19, 2020
In the first meeting under the new governorship of Naci Agbal on 19 November, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Turkey hiked the one-week repo rate from 10.25% to 15.00%.
November 13, 2020
Industrial production expanded 8.1% year-on-year in September (August: +10.6% yoy) as the economy continued to gain traction at the close of the third quarter.
November 5, 2020
Consumer prices increased 2.13% in October over the previous month, picking up from September's 0.97% rise.