Turkey Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021Data for Q3 suggests that the economy continued to grow solidly, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2 amid a less favorable base effect. In July, industrial output growth lost notable steam on an annual basis, while retail sales also expanded at a softer rate and the unemployment rate rose. Looking at the quarter as a whole, business confidence increased on average, likely influenced by an improved demand outlook amid the relaxation of restrictive measures. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI averaged higher in Q3, highlighting that operating conditions improved at a stronger pace, while a rising capacity utilization rate bodes well for output ahead. That said, the upbeat readings are seemingly masking some fragility in the economy: Inflation continued to rise through August and currency volatility returned at the tail end of the quarter, which will weigh on activity.
Turkey Economic GrowthThe economy is forecast to shift into a lower gear in 2022. While a further relaxation of lockdown measures at home and abroad should support aggregate demand, elevated price pressures, renewed pressure on the lira and a frail external position will weigh on momentum. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 8.1% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Turkey Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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Turkey Economic News
October 14, 2021
Industrial output expanded 13.8% compared to the same month of the previous year in August, which followed July's 9.7% increase.
October 11, 2021
Turkey recorded a current account surplus of USD 0.5 billion in August, marking the first surplus in 10 months and improving from the USD 4.1 billion shortfall recorded in the same month a year prior (July 2021: USD -0.9 billion).
October 6, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.25% in September over the previous month, accelerating from August's 1.12% increase.
October 4, 2021
The Turkish lira tumbled drastically at the close of Q3, reaching a new all-time low of TRY 8.92 per USD on 29 September.
October 1, 2021
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 52.5 in September from 54.1 in August.