Turkey Economic Forecast

Turkey Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

The country’s upbeat economic performance throughout H1 was confirmed in mid-September as data showed the economy expanded 5.1% in annual terms in the second quarter. GDP growth in Q2 was buttressed by a surge in construction-related investment and noteworthy growth in exports, which benefited from robust European demand and soaring tourist arrivals. Solid leading data, coupled with a favorable calendar effect stemming from the slump caused by the failed coup d’état in July 2016, points to a similarly strong Q3 GDP outturn. Economic growth, however, is expected to cool as some of the government’s stimulus measures expire and the impact of the credit guarantee fund facility dwindles. On 27 September, the government announced it intends to increase some indirect taxes next year in a bid to reign in the fiscal deficit, which could also put a damper on growth to an extent.

Turkey Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)75.676.577.378.779.8
GDP per capita (USD)11,52912,41512,08410,89310,731
GDP (USD bn)872950934858856
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.88.55.26.12.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.59.53.66.43.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.27.93.05.52.3
Investment (annual variation in %)2.713.85.19.23.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.43.53.52.91.8
Unemployment Rate8.49.110.010.310.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.0-1.1-1.0-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.236.133.527.528.3
Money (annual variation in %)12.521.511.918.416.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.27.48.28.88.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.97.58.97.77.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.57.06.45.79.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.504.508.257.508.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)52.6-13.326.4-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.782.152.332.923.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.801.912.192.733.02
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.5-6.7-4.7-3.7-3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-48.0-63.6-43.6-32.1-32.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-65.4-79.9-63.6-48.1-40.9
Exports (USD billion)162162169152150
Imports (USD billion)227242233200191
Exports (annual variation in %)13.7-0.14.4-10.0-1.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.86.3-3.8-14.0-4.5
International Reserves (USD)99.911110792.992.2
External Debt (% of GDP)38.941.143.046.247.3

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Turkey Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield11.000.46 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate3.650.31 %Oct 16
Stock Market106,4740.23 %Oct 16

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Turkey Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

Near-term economic prospects remain positive as the country benefits from an upturn in European demand for Turkish goods and a revival in the tourism sector. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 4.8% in 2017. As growth-inducing policies draw to an end, however, growth is expected to shift into a lower gear. Panelists expect growth of 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

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