Turkey Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Available data continues to point to an economic recovery in the third quarter. Industrial output rebounded strongly in July–August on an annual basis from the steep fall logged in Q2, amid surging manufacturing production, which grew at the sharpest rate in over two years in August. Moreover, business confidence swung to optimistic territory in the quarter as the general business climate improved and export expectations turned rosy. However, household spending likely remained relatively subdued, despite consumer credit growth picking up notable steam in the quarter, as consumer confidence did not improve and inflation remained elevated. In the political arena, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak presented the new economic program for 2021–2023. The program—which envisages 5.8% GDP growth next year—focuses on strengthening innovation, value-added production and exports to drive growth.
Turkey Economic GrowthFollowing the sharpest contraction in over a decade this year, the economy should recover notably next year as the impact of the pandemic and associated containment measures fades and domestic and foreign demand strengthen. That said, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside amid lingering currency weakness, elevated inflation and a fragile external position. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to expand 4.3% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 4.1% in 2022.
Turkey Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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Turkey Economic News
July 26, 2021
Turkish business confidence rose from an over seven-year high of 113.0 in June to an over 14-year high of 114.8 in July, likely boosted by the further reopening of the economy at the start of the month.
July 19, 2021
Consumer confidence fell to 79.5 in July from June's 81.7.
July 15, 2021
At its 14 July meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Turkey left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 19.00%, in order to give previous rate hikes time to display their effects on inflation.
July 13, 2021
Industrial output rose 40.7% in year-on-year terms in May, which followed April's 66.3% surge.
July 9, 2021
Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed from USD 4.0 billion in May 2020 to USD 3.1 billion in May 2021 (April 2021: USD -1.7 billion).