South Africa: Inflation notches 18-month high in November

Consumer prices climbed 0.2% from the previous month in November, down from October’s 0.5% increase. A slower rise in fuel costs was behind the reading. To that effect, core consumer prices—which exclude food and energy prices—rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% in October.

Inflation edged up to 5.2% (October: 5.1%), landing both within the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s target band of 3.0%–6.0% and in line with analysts’ expectations. Core inflation rose to 4.4% from 4.2% in October, while annual average inflation was stable from October at 4.6%.

South Africa Inflation Forecast

The SARB sees inflation averaging 5.5% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation averaging 5.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel also projects average inflation at 5.3% in 2020.