Singapore: Inflation rises in March from the prior month
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 1.8% in annual terms in March, following a 1.2% increase in the previous month. March’s reading was the strongest since September 2024.
Relative to the previous month’s data, price pressures were higher for transport in March (+6.0% on a year-on-year basis vs +2.7% in February). Finally, the variations in food and housing and utilities were the same as in the prior month (+1.6% and +0.3%, respectively).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 1.7% on a year-on-year basis in March, following a 1.4% increase in the prior month and in line with market expectations.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.48% in March on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.58% increase in the previous month.
Panelist insight: Jester Koh from the United Overseas Bank observed:
“The first-round effects from the energy supply shock are already evident in the Mar CPI data, such as petrol and point-to-point transport services (although the sequential drop in the airfares component was a surprise), with higher electricity and gas tariffs already announced for 2Q (Apr–Jun) and likely to see even sharper increases from 3Q (Jul–Sep) onwards. It remains too early to assess the extent of second-round effects, given firms may choose to temporarily absorb the higher energy/logistics/input costs and may pass on the cost increases to consumers with a lag.”
Commenting on the outlook, Nomura’s Euben Paracuelles and Yiru Chen said:
“The surge in crude oil and LNG prices should have a significant impact on core inflation in coming months via lagged upward adjustments to household utility costs, offsetting some downside risks from lower education costs. Other factors such as rising fertilizer and shipping costs could push food prices higher.”