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Serbia Inflation March 2022

Serbia: Inflation comes in at highest level since June 2013 in March

Consumer prices rose 0.80% from the previous month in March, coming in below the 1.10% increase recorded in February. The print came on the back of falling prices across the board, with only prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increasing.

Inflation increased to 9.1% in March from February’s 8.8%. March’s figure represented the highest inflation rate since June 2013, and slightly overshot market analysts’ expectations of 9.0%. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.9% in March (February: 5.3%). Finally, harmonized inflation jumped to 9.2% in March, from the previous month’s 8.8%.

Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, added:

“Serbia’s inflation outlook has deteriorated markedly due to commodity, food prices and supply-chain disruptions. Inflation is likely to average close to double-digit figures this year before gradually reverting towards the central bank’s target range next year. […] We have revised our CPI forecast upwards, now expecting inflation to average 8.6% y/y and 5.8% y/y in 2022 and 2023 respectively, up from 7.2% y/y and 4.2% y/y”

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