Russia Inflation July 2022

Russia: Inflation falls to lowest level since February in July

Consumer prices fell 0.39% in July over the previous month, following the 0.35% fall recorded in June. July’s result marked the weakest reading since August 2017. Looking at the details of the release, prices for both food products and non-food products fell at a less pronounced rate. Meanwhile, services price growth moderated.

Inflation fell to 15.1% in July, following June’s 15.9%. July’s result represented the weakest inflation rate since February. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 11.7% in July (June: 11.0%). Lastly, core inflation fell to 18.4% in July, from the previous month’s 19.2%.

Commenting on inflationary and monetary policy outlook, analysts at Goldman Sachs said:

“Based on the weekly prints, […] we estimate inflation fell further […] to +14.2% [in August]. Prices continue to normalise after the initial shock, and we believe that there is more room for them to fall in the short term. […] Disinflation continues to be supported by the past strengthening of the RUB […] We continue to think the current levels of the RUB are unsustainable from a budget perspective and […] a depreciating RUB may cause a renewed pickup in inflation once FX purchases are restarted.”

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