Russia Inflation June 2021

Russia

Russia: Inflation comes in at highest level since August 2016 in June

June 8, 2021

Consumer prices rose 0.69% in June over the previous month, broadly in line with May's 0.74% increase. The overall upturn was broad-based with prices for food products, non-food goods and services growing at a similar pace.

Inflation rose to 6.5% in June from May’s 6.0%. June's result marked the highest inflation rate since August 2016. AS a result, annual average inflation increased to 4.9% in June (May: 4.6%). Core inflation rose to 6.6% in June, from the previous month's 6.0%.

Commenting on the result, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, said:

“Overall, the CPI performance in June and early July supports our recent decision to worsen Russia's CPI and the monetary policy outlook [...] We would not exclude further acceleration in the CPI rate to 6.6%-6.7% yoy in July, with deceleration possible only in the very end of the year […] The balance of risks to our new year-end CPI target of 5.7% yoy is still tilted to the upside. The base case for the 23 July rate hike is 75bp, and the highest discussed 100bp also cannot be fully ruled out.”

FocusEconomics panelists project inflation ending 2021 at 5.2%, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, participants project inflation to end the year at 3.9%.


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Russia Inflation June 2021

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat)


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