Russia Industrial production September 2023

Russia: Industrial output growth picks up pace in September

Industrial output increased 5.6% in year-on-year terms in September, which was above August’s 5.4% increase. The result marked the seventh consecutive month of expansion in the Russian industrial sector. September’s upturn was largely due to a faster growth in the manufacturing sector and a softer contraction in mining and quarrying output.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, factory output rebounded, rising 0.3% in September (August: -0.3% mom). Meanwhile, the trend improved significantly, with the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at 2.1%, up from August’s 1.5% reading.

Commenting on the economic outlook, Marianna Rõbinskaja, economist at Swedbank, highlighted the economy’s reliance on public spending amid flagging oil and gas activity: “Russia’s oil and gas revenues are expected to fall by almost one-fourth this year. […] The loss of oil revenues will be compensated for by higher-than-expected non-energy revenues. […] Economic growth is strongly supported by defence spending, as record-high government expenditures were allocated to the war. […] High government expenditures will continue to push up economic activity in the coming years.”

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