Russia: Decline in industrial activity softens in December
January 25, 2021
Industrial output dropped 0.2% compared to the same month a year earlier in December, which was above November's 1.5% decrease. The figure marked the smallest drop since March. December's softer dip came on the back of a pick-up in manufacturing activity and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which more than offset a sharper decline in mining output.
On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, factory output rose at a more moderate pace of 1.5% in December (November: +1.8% mom). Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 2.8% in December, down from November's minus 2.6%.
Commenting on the outlook for 2021, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, said:
“We are cautiously optimistic for the full-year given the likely relaxation of restrictions to commodity extraction. Meanwhile, industrial growth above 3.0-3.5% in 2021 would require continued recovery in the consumer and investment trend, with fiscal policy potentially playing a crucial role.”
Author: Almanas Stanapedis, Research Team Manager