Romania GDP Q2 2022

Romania

Romania: Economy slows but beats expectations again in Q2

September 7, 2022

According to a second estimate, even though economic growth lost steam in Q2, the 5.3% year-on-year increase beat market expectations by a significant margin (Q1: +6.4% year on year).

Household spending increased 8.0% in the second quarter, which was above the first quarter's 7.2% expansion. Public spending dropped, contracting 0.4% in Q2 (Q1: +5.4% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth improved to 2.5% in Q2, from the 1.7% expansion logged in the previous quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 4.9% on an annual basis in the second quarter, which was below the first quarter's 8.6% expansion. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 19.1% in Q2 (Q1: +10.8% yoy), marking the best reading since Q2 2021.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed markedly to 2.1% in Q2, from the previous period's 5.1% expansion.

On the outlook for Romania, the EIU said:

“[the deep contraction in Germany] will have spillover effects for the Romanian economy: export growth will be negatively affected, particularly in 2023, and oil and gas prices will remain well above pre-war levels throughout the duration of the conflict, adding to the supply-chain woes affecting Romania's industry. […] investment growth will nonetheless accelerate owing to inflows of EU funds under the Next Generation EU programme. The inflationary effects of the war will also weigh on real wage growth. Nonetheless we expect private consumption (the main driver of growth in 2021) to remain relatively robust this year.”

Our panelists see GDP expanding 5.0% in 2022, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, analysts see growth at 3.1%.


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Romania GDP Q2  2022 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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