Qatar: GDP growth picks up in Q3
According to a preliminary reading, GDP rose 1.2% year on year in the third quarter of 2023, above the 1.0% growth seen in the second quarter. The reading was roughly in line with our Consensus forecast of 1.1%. Despite accelerating, the reading was the second-slowest since Q1 2021.
Looking at a breakdown by sector, growth of mining and quarrying output was stable at Q2’s 2.3% in Q3. Meanwhile, growth of non-mining and quarrying output picked up to 0.6% in Q3 from 0.1% in Q2.
Our panelists expect GDP growth to accelerate gradually in the coming years, peaking in 2027 as the country’s oil sector gains pace thanks to the expansion of LNG output. The non-oil sector will add further support, boosted by the government’s diversification efforts—despite expanding at a pace below the 2013–2022 average of 4.2%.
Analysts at Fitch Solutions commented:
“The Qatari economy expanded at a fast pace in the years before the 2014-2015 oil price crash, recording real annualised growth of 12.6% between 2005 and 2014 – a rate that placed it among the world’s fastest-growing markets […]. While growth dimmed slightly due to the Covid-19 crisis, we expect a robust rebound in investment – particularly in the New North Field and economic diversification initiatives – to act as a key growth driver.”