Poland: Industrial activity contracts at sharpest rate since May 2020 in February
Industrial production slid 1.2% year on year in February (January: +1.8% yoy). February’s outturn marked the worst reading since May 2020. Looking at the details of the release, mining and quarrying output gained traction in February, while manufacturing output swung to contraction.
On a monthly basis, industrial output rose 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms in February, rebounding from January’s 1.3% fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 8.6% in February, down from January’s minus 6.3% reading.
Commenting on the release, economists at ING, stated:
“Despite signs of stabilisation in the manufacturing sector (slower decline in new orders reported by purchasing managers), production activity is stabilising at a relatively low level, and in the first quarter, industrial value added is likely to be at a lower level than in the same period last year. Combined with the weakness in trade, this will translate into an annualised decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year. We currently estimate this at around 1%.”