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Poland GDP Q3 2021

Poland: GDP growth slows in Q3

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth eased to 5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, from 11.2% in the second quarter. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth improved to 2.3% in Q3, following the previous quarter’s 1.8% expansion. Q3’s reading marked the best result since Q3 2020, hinting at solid underlying economic momentum.

The slowdown in annual terms reflected weaker consumer and government spending, amid a less favorable base effect. Household spending grew 4.7% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 7.2% expansion, while public spending increased 0.8% (Q2: +3.0% yoy). Contrastingly, fixed investment growth hit an over two-year high of 9.3% in the third quarter, up from the second quarter’s 5.6% and bolstering the overall growth figure somewhat.

On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 8.6% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 29.2% expansion. In addition, growth in imports of goods and services waned to 15.2% in Q3 (Q2: +34.5% yoy).

Commenting on the outlook, Rafal Benecki, chief Poland economist at ING, said:

“We are maintaining our earlier GDP growth projection of 5.4% in 2021 as a whole. In 2022, we see a slight decline in GDP growth to 4.5%, due to the negative inflation shock which limited the effect of the strong growth of disposable incomes over recent years. We assume new fiscal impulses in 2022–23 should significantly mitigate the slowdown, but on the other hand, will also fuel high inflation.”

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