Peru: Inflation rises in June from the prior month
Latest reading: Consumer prices in Lima were up 4.0% on a year-on-year basis in June, following a 3.9% rise in the previous month and moving further above the Central Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range.
Relative to the prior month’s data, there were higher price pressures for food and beverages (+3.3% in annual terms vs +2.9% in May) and housing and utilities (+1.2% vs +1.0% in May). In contrast, there were reduced price pressures for recreation and entertainment (+2.0% vs +2.1% in May) and transport (+14.6% vs +15.1% in May). Finally, the change in clothing prices was the same as in the prior month (+1.4% in June and May).
Lastly, consumer prices in Lima were up 0.23% in June in month-on-month terms, following a 0.16% decline in the previous month.
Panelist insight: On the inflation outlook and the implications for monetary policy, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We forecast an above-consensus [end-2026 inflation] print of 4.4%. The disinflation process ahead is likely to remain gradual amid persistent El Niño risks. Against this backdrop, and with activity holding up, we expect the BCRP to resume its tightening cycle, delivering a cumulative 50bp in hikes by year-end, taking the policy rate to 4.75%.”