Peru: Third quarter economic activity ends on a low note
November 15, 2018
Economic activity expanded 2.1% year-on-year in September, down from August’s 2.3% increase. National production in the January–September period, meanwhile, rose by 3.6% from the same period in 2017.
Consumer spending likely decelerated but remained solid, driving growth in September, while exports swung from a timid expansion in August to a significant contraction. Retail sales expanded at a healthy but softer pace in September, while consumer credit growth remained strong. On the external side, the downturn in exports was the result of a notable fall in overseas sales of traditional products, especially mining products. Non-traditional exports, on the other hand, continued to expand robustly, led by higher sales of agricultural and fishing products.
In terms of productive sectors, almost all sectors continued to expand. In particular, the telecommunication, fishing, agricultural and financial and insurance sectors continued to expand solidly. The agricultural sector again benefited from favorable weather conditions. However, the construction sector continued to shrink, dragged down by falling investment in public infrastructure.
Meanwhile, annual average variation in economic activity came in at 3.2% in September, marginally down from August’s 3.3% increase.
Peru GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP will expand 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, the panel sees the economy growing 3.7%.