New Zealand Business Confidence June 2018

New Zealand

New Zealand: Business confidence continues to fall in June

June 27, 2018

The ANZ Bank Business Outlook indicator showed that a net 39.0% of surveyed firms were pessimistic about the year ahead in June, a much higher proportion than May’s 27.2%. As a result, the indicator moved further below the net-0% threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among firms. The retail and construction industries took a big hit in June, with confidence plunging the most among the surveyed sectors. Manufacturing also suffered a marked deterioration in sentiment compared to May. Agriculture was the only sector for which confidence improved, albeit slightly.

Similar to the decline in the confidence reading, firms’ positive outlook regarding their own activity—a metric which has a stronger correlation to GDP growth—dropped from plus 13.6 points to 9.4 points, the lowest reading since November 2017. Firms’ employment intentions and profit expectations declined sharply. Moreover, a sizeable number of firms still foresee credit difficulties ahead.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to grow 4.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Author:, Economist

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New Zealand Business Confidence Chart

NewZealand Business Confidence June 2018

Note: Percentage of respondents expecting improvement in general business conditions minus percentage expecting deterioration. An index number above 0 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The survey is not conducted in January.
Source: ANZ Bank Business Outlook.

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