Mexico PMI January 2021

Mexico

Mexico: Manufacturing PMIs climb at the start of 2021 though remain fragile

February 2, 2021

The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) jumped from 48.8 points in December 2020 to 50.2 points in January, marking the highest reading since May 2019. Thus, it landed above the critical 50-point threshold, the first time in 20 months, indicating a marginal expansion of the manufacturing sector. January’s upturn was mainly driven by a bounce back to growth in new orders and production, while employment fell at a softer pace than in December.

Similarly, the seasonally-adjusted manufacturing PMI produced by IHS Markit climbed from 42.4 in December to 43.0 in January. Nevertheless, it remained well below the 50-threshold, pointing to another sharp deterioration of business conditions in the manufacturing industry. New export orders declined at a softer pace compared to December. That said, the magnitude of the drop remained stark, with output also being scaled back as the pandemic, downbeat demand and business closures weighed heavily on overall conditions. Meanwhile, although firms remained optimistic, they were less so than in the previous month.

According to the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel, industrial output will increase 4.8% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, our panel sees industrial output growing 2.8%.


Author:, Economist

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Mexico PMI January 2021

Note: Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (PMI) for the U.S., seasonally-adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico and IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 indicate to a contraction/deterioration.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and IHS Markit.


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