Banxico Target Rate in Mexico
Mexico's central bank policy rates over the last decade varied in response to economic conditions. Initially, rates were increased to control inflation, but were cut to stimulate growth during economic slowdowns, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Post-pandemic, the focus shifted to controlling rising inflation, leading to increased rates before another easing cycle began in 2024 as inflation pulled back. However, interest rates remain above pre-pandemic levels.
The Banxico Target Rate ended 2022 at 10.50%, higher than the 5.50% end-2021 value and significantly above the rate of 3.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Latin America stood at 18.90% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Mexico from 2024 to 2015.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) | 4.25 | 5.50 | 10.50 | 11.25 | 10.00 |
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) | 4.48 | 5.72 | 10.76 | 11.50 | 10.24 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 5.47 | 7.55 | 9.04 | 8.97 | 10.36 |
Central Bank decreases rates in March
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 27 March, the Central Bank decided to lower the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.00%. The move aligned with market expectations and brought the cumulative reduction since early 2024 to 225 basis points.
Sustained disinflation and rising economic uncertainty prompt cut: The Bank noted that the disinflation process remains on track and reiterated that it still expects inflation to reach the 3.0% central target in Q3 2026. Meanwhile, the Bank highlighted that the economy is expected to have shown weakness in Q1 2025 amidst an environment of uncertainty and noted significant downward risks due to trade tensions with the U.S.
Central Bank to cut rates further: The Central Bank reiterated that it might continue adjusting the monetary policy stance in “similar magnitudes” in the future. Our Consensus is for around 100 basis points of cuts by end-2025. Greater U.S. tariffs on Mexico pose a downside risk as weaker growth is likely to prompt deeper monetary policy easing. The next meeting is scheduled for 15 May.
Panelist insight: Itaú Unibanco’s Julia Passabom and Mariana Ramirez commented: “Today’s decision delivered a 50-bp cut, followed by forward guidance indicating a similar adjustment in the next meeting (May 15th). Although the decision was broadly expected by analysts, signaling the next move in such a clear form was not the consensus. Given the well-behaved USDMXN, CPI within Banxico’s target and weak economic data (we forecast a 0.5% QoQ GDP contraction in 1Q25, indicating a technical recession following the 0.6% decline in 4Q24), we see no obstacle to the delivery of another 50-bp cut at the May meeting.” Meanwhile, BBVA analysts said: “The unchanged forward guidance signals significant odds of another 50bp rate cut in May, continues to suggest that a string of consecutive rate cuts ahead is likely, and strongly supports our below-consensus 7.5% policy rate forecast for the end of this year”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 34 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Mexican interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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