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Mexico Inflation March 2024

Mexico: Inflation remains steady in March at slightly above Central Bank’s target range

Inflation came in at 4.4% in March, matching February’s figure and above the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range, but below market expectations of 4.5%. Looking at the details of the release, transportation prices rose at a quicker pace in March compared to the previous month, while price pressures for housing also picked up pace. In contrast, food inflation ebbed.

The trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.8% in March (February: 5.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation was unchanged, coming in at February’s 4.6% in March.

Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.29% over the previous month in March, picking up from February’s 0.09% rise.

Our panelists expect inflation in Mexico to stay slightly above target for the remainder of this year, before falling back into the target range in 2025.

Scotiabank analysts highlighted upside risks to the outlook:

“Despite the better-than-expected data in March, […] the market will closely monitor future prints, particularly in the core components, which are merchandise and services, where wage cost pressures and higher public spending represent some of the upside risks. It is important to keep in mind that weather disruptions during the year and an escalation in geopolitical tensions could also affect non-core inflation.”

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