Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

July 10, 2018

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won the 1 July presidential vote by a 30-point margin, comfortably securing a six-year term as president. The leftist’s landslide victory was widely expected and followed months of market volatility as investors anxiously priced in his policy proposals. A concerted push by AMLO’s campaign to calm investors appeared to work in the weeks running up to the ballot, however, as the peso began an earnest recovery. Moreover, the president-elect’s conciliatory post-election speech positioned him as a pragmatic centrist committed to fiscal responsibility—despite campaign pledges to boost social spending. Although AMLO is only set to take office in December, he appears poised to inherit an improving economy; consumer-spending metrics ticked higher in the second quarter. Meanwhile, industry-related metrics have improved somewhat in recent months on firmer manufacturing output.

Mexico Economic Growth

Tight domestic and U.S. labor markets, as well as firmer credit growth, should support household spending this year. Moreover, healthy factory output in the U.S. should bolster manufacturing exports. Uncertainty over NAFTA continues to weigh heavily on the outlook, although its successful renegotiation would likely safeguard fixed investment. At this point, most analysts expect AMLO to tack his platform to the center somewhat. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.3% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, analysts see growth stable at 2.3%.

Mexico Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)118120121122124
GDP per capita (USD)10,77310,9649,6548,8049,325
GDP (USD bn)1,2751,3121,1681,0761,152
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.42.83.32.92.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.41.92.82.82.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.13.43.73.0
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.43.15.01.1-1.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.22.61.20.4-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.12.75.18.71.3
Unemployment Rate4.33.84.03.43.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.1-3.4-2.5-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.042.646.648.746.2
Money (annual variation in %)10.711.45.26.88.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.04.12.13.46.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.84.02.72.86.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.30.91.310.35.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.003.255.757.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-2.21.0-0.46.28.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0414.7517.1820.7319.65
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12.7613.3115.8818.6918.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-2.5-2.2-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-31.0-24.0-29.8-23.3-19.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.2-3.1-14.7-13.1-11.0
Exports (USD billion)380397381374409
Imports (USD billion)381400395387420
Exports (annual variation in %)2.54.4-4.1-1.79.5
Imports (annual variation in %)2.84.9-1.2-2.18.6
International Reserves (USD)177193177177173
External Debt (% of GDP)31.132.635.838.538.0

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.79-0.24 %Jul 17
Exchange Rate18.89-0.29 %Jul 17
Stock Market48,7050.12 %Jul 17

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