Mexico Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019Preliminary GDP figures revealed that growth slid sharply in the final quarter of 2018, weighed on by a contraction in the industrial sector. Slumping construction activity and plunging mining output drove the downturn, while services growth held up relatively well. Although a breakdown by expenditure is not yet available for the quarter, the external sector is likely to have been hurt by more tepid demand, while domestic policy uncertainty likely continued to bruise business sentiment and contain investment. Meanwhile, available data for the start of the year is mixed. The manufacturing PMI edged up in January but continued to point to contraction in the industrial sector, while consumer confidence jumped in the same month. In addition, widespread reports of gasoline shortages at the start of the year likely hampered activity in January. The shortages came after the government closed several gas pipelines to combat gasoline theft, which is a priority for new president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Mexico Economic GrowthFocusEconomics analysts chopped Mexico’s growth outlook this month and now see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast and a touch below last year’s 2.0% increase. A deceleration in the U.S. economy will reduce demand for Mexican exports while continued uncertainty over the new government’s policy and the ratification of USMCA agreement also dampen the outlook. Next year, growth is seen edging up slightly to 2.0%.
Mexico Economy Data
5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||8.42||-0.24 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||19.26||-0.29 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||42,725||0.12 %||Feb 14|
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Mexico Economic News
February 7, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.09% from a month earlier in January, cooling from the 0.70% month-on-month increase in December.
February 7, 2019
At its 7 February monetary policy meeting, Banxico’s governing board unanimously voted to leave the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at its decade-high 8.25%.
February 6, 2019
Consumer confidence rose in January, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) hitting a new multi-year high of 112.0 points, up from December’s upwardly revised 106.6 points.
February 4, 2019
In line with a modest recovery, the manufacturing sector appeared to stagnate at the outset of the year.
February 1, 2019
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in December (November: USD 2.9 billion), a 6.0% increase from the same month a year earlier (November: +20.2% year-on-year).