Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

January 16, 2018

Mexico is navigating choppy economic waters, with leading data for Q4 indicating that growth only recovered somewhat from Q3’s near four-year low. Industrial data up to November remained depressed due to free-falling mining output and decelerating manufacturing production growth. Retail sales contracted again on an annual basis in October on the back of moderating credit growth, painfully high inflation and a weak peso. PMI releases for the October-to-December period suggest economic activity recovered from earthquake- and hurricane-related disruptions and grew at a moderate clip, but lingering uncertainty regarding NAFTA and presidential elections in July likely continued to stave off fixed investment in the quarter.

Mexico Economic Growth

Economic growth will remain subdued throughout the first half of the year, weighed down by uncertainty, high inflation and softening employment gains. Analysts expect growth to then pick up in the second half of the year as inflation gradually eases and political noise recedes, which should allow the Central Bank to ease monetary conditions, further boosting the economic recovery. The FocusEconomics panel expects growth of 2.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, analysts see growth accelerating to 2.4%.

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Mexico Facts

Bond Yield7.31-0.24 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate18.87-0.29 %Dec 06
Stock Market46,9730.12 %Dec 06

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