Mexico Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019
Available fourth-quarter data points to a moderate cool-off as domestic demand appeared to hobble through year-end. Household spending looks to have been alone at the helm; real wages were on the rise and consumer confidence rode high, both despite elevated inflation. On the other hand, industrial-sector bellwethers have missed the mark in recent months. Along with the deterioration of activity within the pivotal manufacturing sector, these hint at subdued late-year fixed investment. All this follows a solid third-quarter outturn framed by export-driven gains but a slowdown domestically. Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) new government calmed investors’ concerns somewhat on 15 December when it unveiled this year’s budget. Markets responded positively to the restrained spending plans—and its primary fiscal surplus of 1.0% of GDP—and gave the leftist a sorely-needed first win. He initially sent financial markets into a tailspin by scrapping Mexico City’s partially-built airport (NAIM) in late October.Mexico Economic Growth
FocusEconomics analysts have been decidedly wait-and-see in recent weeks as the new government adjusts to power, forgiving AMLO’s late-2018 missteps as they hold out for new policy-signaling; they see growth at 2.0% this year, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. That said, policy uncertainty surrounding the nascent presidency has financial markets on edge, and analysts are notably downbeat on fixed investment over the short-term. More broadly, however, buoyant household spending and a bustling stateside economy are expected to support growth in the coming years. Moreover, once ratified, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement should underpin exports over the long-term. Analysts see growth at 2.1% in 2020.Mexico Economy Data
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Mexico Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.55 | -0.24 % | Jan 30 |
| Exchange Rate | 19.13 | -0.29 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 43,621 | 0.12 % | Jan 30 |
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Mexico Economic News
Mexico: Consumer confidence eases from all-time high in March
April 4, 2019
Consumer confidence eased in March, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) coming in at 116.3 points, down from February’s all-time high of 120.0 points.
Mexico: Manufacturing sector weakens in March
April 2, 2019
The manufacturing sector appears to have lost steam at the end of Q1.
Mexico: Remittances broadly unchanged in February
April 1, 2019
Remittances totaled USD 2.4 billion in February, a 6.4% increase from the USD 2.3 billion inflows recorded in February 2018.
Mexico: Banxico holds rates in March
March 28, 2019
At its 28 March monetary policy meeting, Banxico’s governing board unanimously voted to leave the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 8.25%, matching market analysts’ expectations.
Mexico: Trade surplus hides downbeat manufacturing in February
March 27, 2019
Merchandise trade recorded a sizable USD 1.2 billion surplus in February, up from the USD 0.9 billion windfall registered in the same month a year ago and in line with analysts’ expectations.
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