Mexico Economic Outlook
March 17, 2020A second GDP release showed that the economy was even weaker than previously estimated in the final quarter of last year, with output contracting more sharply year-on-year on shrinking manufacturing production and a still-reeling construction sector, while confirming the first full-year slump in a decade in 2019. Turning to Q1, available data points to a slight improvement in economic conditions, though downside risks have mounted. Although remaining in contractionary terrain, the manufacturing PMI averaged higher in January–February compared to Q4. The services PMI also fared as such, as did consumer confidence, but January’s tick-up in the unemployment rate and slower job growth might weigh on household spending. In addition, rising price pressures in February, which could be exacerbated further by the plunge in the peso, coupled with the coronavirus fallout, further cloud Q1 prospects.
Mexico Economic GrowthThe economy is seen recovering modestly this year, underpinned by gradually strengthening private consumption. That said, the outlook is discouraging amid depressed business confidence; the plunge in global oil prices and its effect on Pemex’s already fragile finances; recent financial market turmoil; and coronavirus-related disruptions to general activity. FocusEconomics panelists estimate growth of 0.6% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2021.
Mexico Economy Data
5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.87||-0.24 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||18.93||-0.29 %||Jan 01|
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Mexico Economic News
April 1, 2020
Remittances totaled USD 2.7 billion in February (January: USD 2.6 billion), representing a robust 10.5% increase from the same month in 2019 and following the 5.2% rise logged in January.
April 1, 2020
The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) slid to 45.0 in March from 48.0 in February, its lowest reading since April 2017 and signaling a sharper contraction of the manufacturing sector.
March 27, 2020
Exports climbed 0.6% year-on-year in February, below January’s 3.2% increase.
March 26, 2020
The monthly indicator for economic activity (IGAE) flatlined in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms in January, down from December’s 0.1% uptick.
Mexico: Banxico slashes key rate and unveils liquidity measures in March to combat coronavirus impact
March 20, 2020
In a surprise out-of-cycle meeting on 20 March, the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) decided to slash the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 50 basis points to 6.50%, marking the sixth consecutive cut and the largest since June 2014.