Mexico Economic Outlook
July 10, 2018
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won the 1 July presidential vote by a 30-point margin, comfortably securing a six-year term as president. The leftist’s landslide victory was widely expected and followed months of market volatility as investors anxiously priced in his policy proposals. A concerted push by AMLO’s campaign to calm investors appeared to work in the weeks running up to the ballot, however, as the peso began an earnest recovery. Moreover, the president-elect’s conciliatory post-election speech positioned him as a pragmatic centrist committed to fiscal responsibility—despite campaign pledges to boost social spending. Although AMLO is only set to take office in December, he appears poised to inherit an improving economy; consumer-spending metrics ticked higher in the second quarter. Meanwhile, industry-related metrics have improved somewhat in recent months on firmer manufacturing output.Mexico Economic Growth
Tight domestic and U.S. labor markets, as well as firmer credit growth, should support household spending this year. Moreover, healthy factory output in the U.S. should bolster manufacturing exports. Uncertainty over NAFTA continues to weigh heavily on the outlook, although its successful renegotiation would likely safeguard fixed investment. At this point, most analysts expect AMLO to tack his platform to the center somewhat. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.3% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, analysts see growth stable at 2.3%.Mexico Economy Data
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Mexico Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.79 | -0.24 % | Jul 17 |
| Exchange Rate | 18.89 | -0.29 % | Jul 17 |
| Stock Market | 48,705 | 0.12 % | Jul 17 |
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Mexico Economic News
Mexico: Inflation ticks up on the weak peso in June
July 9, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.39% from a month earlier in June, contrasting their 0.16% fall recorded in May.
Mexico: Consumer confidence hits six-month high in June
July 5, 2018
Consumer sentiment rose in June, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by INEGI hitting a half-year high of 88.0 points, up from a revised 87.1 points (previously reported: 87.0 points) in May.
Mexico: Manufacturing activity accelerates in June
July 2, 2018
Mexico’s manufacturing sector wrapped up the first half of the year on a high note.
Mexico: Remittance inflows strengthen in May
July 2, 2018
Remittances totaled USD 3.1 billion in May (April: USD 2.7 billion), a robust 19.8% increase from the same month last year, accelerating from the 17.9% rise registered in April.
Mexico: Merchandise trade deficit widens in May
June 27, 2018
Merchandise trade recorded a USD 1.6 billion deficit in May, widening notably from the USD 1.2 billion deficit registered in May 2017 and also the USD 289 million deficit registered in April.
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