Mexico Economic Outlook
December 4, 2018
Comprehensive data confirmed that growth bounced back in the third quarter on across-the-board expansions. This was particularly marked within the services sector as consumers sprang to life following the landslide victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in the 1 July general election. The interregnum in the lead-up to his inauguration on 1 December was marred by controversy, however, and financial turmoil in recent weeks suggests that markets had not entirely priced in his policy prescriptions. Policy uncertainty abounds; his cancellation of the USD 13 billion New Mexico City International Airport (NAIM) in October via disputed referendum spooked investors and sparked a selloff of the peso—putting Banxico in the hotseat. Analysts have grown bearish in the first days of AMLO’s ascendency to the top post: Anticipated pass-through is likely to sting consumers over the short-term, while higher interest rates and the shock to business sentiment bode poorly for investment.Mexico Economic Growth
Short-term growth prospects were bruised in recent weeks by the policy uncertainty surrounding AMLO’s nascent presidency. In particular, analysts have slashed their investment projections due to firms’ anxieties over the new administration. FocusEconomics analysts now see growth at 2.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. More broadly, however, tight labor markets both domestically and stateside are expected to support growth in the coming years. On the external front, the newly-minted United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) should support exports over the long-term. Analysts see growth at 2.2% in 2020.Mexico Economy Data
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Mexico Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 9.14 | -0.24 % | Dec 10 |
| Exchange Rate | 20.31 | -0.29 % | Dec 10 |
| Stock Market | 41,356 | 0.12 % | Dec 10 |
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Mexico Economic News
Mexico: Remittances cool off in October
December 3, 2018
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in October (September: USD 2.7 billion), a 3.4% increase from the same month last year.
Mexico: Manufacturing hits the brakes in November
December 3, 2018
Mexico’s manufacturing sector hit the brakes in November.
Mexico: Trade deficit widens in October
November 27, 2018
Merchandise trade recorded a USD 2.9 billion deficit in October, up from the USD 2.3 billion shortfall registered in the same month a year ago.
Mexico: Economic activity accelerates in September
November 23, 2018
Economic activity grew 2.1% in September from the same month a year earlier, picking up from the 1.8% year-on-year expansion logged in August.
Mexico: Mexican economy bounces back in Q3
November 23, 2018
A comprehensive estimate for growth in the third quarter confirmed the anticipated across-the-board improvement analysts had expected on the heels of this year’s shaky first half.
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