Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

April 17, 2018

The economy is gradually regaining traction following an anemic performance in H2 2017. In January, private consumption expanded at a five-month high in annual terms on the back of ebbing inflationary pressures and robust employment growth, while fixed investment rose at its second-highest rate in nearly two years. Likewise, healthy employment growth in February and a marked slowdown in inflation in Q1 should further lift private spending; double-digit capital import growth in the first two months of the year bodes well for capital outlays. A pick-up in investment and another round of successful bidding for multiple oil basins in the Gulf of Mexico are encouraging signs of economic resilience amid a busy political agenda dominated by ongoing NAFTA talks and looming general elections. Official campaigning began in earnest in early April, with left-of-center nationalist candidate López Obrador leading most polls by a double-digit margin.

Mexico Economic Growth

Dwindling price pressures, firmer credit growth, tight labor conditions and robust remittances should support household consumption this year. Healthy factory output in the U.S. is also expected to buttress manufacturing exports, while incipient signs of a potentially successful renegotiation of NAFTA should benefit fixed investment. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, analysts see growth accelerating slightly to 2.3%.

Mexico Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)117118-  -  -  
Population (million)117118-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)10,14810,668-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)10,14810,668-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)1,1881,263-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)1,1881,263-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.4-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.4-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.91.4-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.91.4-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.92.1-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.92.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.8-1.6-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.8-1.6-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.9-0.5-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.9-0.5-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.11.1-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.11.1-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.44.3-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.44.3-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.3-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.3-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.238.3-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.238.3-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)14.59.1-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)14.59.1-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.64.0-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.64.0-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.8-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.8-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.21.3-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.21.3-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.503.50-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.503.50-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)17.9-2.2-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)17.9-2.2-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12.8713.04-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)13.1612.76-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)13.1612.76-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.4-2.5-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.4-2.5-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-17.0-31.0-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-17.0-31.0-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-1.2-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-1.2-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)371380-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)371380-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)371381-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)371381-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.12.5-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.12.5-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)5.72.8-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)5.72.8-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)164177-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)164177-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)19.120.6-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)19.120.6-  -  -  

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.47-0.24 %Apr 19
Bond Yield7.47-0.24 %Apr 19
Exchange Rate18.44-0.29 %Apr 19
Exchange Rate18.44-0.29 %Apr 19
Stock Market48,7450.12 %Apr 19
Stock Market48,7450.12 %Apr 19

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