Mexico Economic Outlook
October 10, 2017The economy’s better-than-expected performance in H1 was due to resilient household consumption and renewed momentum in the manufacturing sector. However, leading data suggests some of the tailwinds that boosted growth in H1 faded in Q3. Although August’s trade report and PMI indicators for the July-to-September period still paint a bright picture of the manufacturing sector, data for consumption suggests the long-touted moderation in private spending may have finally arrived. Retail sales barely expanded for a second consecutive month in July, while auto sales continued to contract through August, reaffirming the narrative that multi-year high inflation is denting households’ real income growth despite a tight labor market and robust remittance inflows. Q3 growth will also reflect the economic impact of the two earthquakes that devastated Mexico in September, although reconstruction efforts are expected to shore up economic activity in the quarters to come.
Mexico Economy Data
5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.31||1.25 %||Oct 16|
|Exchange Rate||19.03||0.63 %||Oct 16|
|Stock Market||49,721||-0.52 %||Oct 16|
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Mexico Economic Growth
October 10, 2017The economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty linked to the renegotiation of NAFTA and the elections scheduled in Mexico for next July. While resilient in H1, GDP growth should moderate in H2 due to the immediate effects of the earthquake on economic activity and slower private consumption growth. Our panel expects growth of 2.2% in 2017. Next year, the economy is expected to benefit from stronger government consumption ahead of the election and softer inflation. Panelists see GDP growth at 2.3% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Mexico Economic News
October 9, 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.31% from the previous month in September, which was below both the 0.49% increase recorded in August and market expectations of a 0.44% rise in September.
October 5, 2017
Sentiment among Mexican consumers continued to increase in September, marking an over one-year high and extending the streak of consecutive monthly improvements in consumer confidence seen since January 2017, when sentiment fell to a record low following Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. President.
October 2, 2017
Remittances totaled USD 2.5 billion in August, an 8.8% expansion from the same month last year.
September 28, 2017
The Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7.00% at its 28 September monetary policy meeting, the second consecutive meeting at which it stands pat following a 400-basis-point tightening cycle carried out over the course of last year.
September 27, 2017
The external sector appears to have regained some traction in August.