Kazakhstan: GDP growth records slowest increase since Q2 2021 in the third quarter of 2022
Activity softened in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 3.0% year on year cumulatively through September (Q2: +3.6 yoy). This reading marked the worst result since Q2 2021.
The deceleration was mainly driven by a drop in public consumption, which contracted 3.8% through Q3 (Q2: +2.2% yoy). Private consumption slid at a more moderate rate, falling by 1.0% year on year in the first nine months of 2022 from a 2.0% contraction in Q2. More positively, fixed investment growth hit a near three-year high of 3.0% in the third quarter (Q2: +2.3% yoy).
On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services improved to 18.0% in Q3 (Q2: +16.9% yoy) amid elevated oil and gas prices. Similarly, growth in imports of goods and services accelerated to 11.2% in Q3 (Q2: +9.3% yoy).
While the GDP print softened, accelerating growth in fixed investment and exports bodes well for economic activity in the long run. While economic growth is likely to soften in H1 2023 from Q3s level, it should expand at a quicker pace in the second half of 2023 amid lower inflation and interest rates.