Japan: Core inflation inches up in January

The core consumer price index rose 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in January, contrasting December’s 0.3% drop.

Core inflation inched up from December’s seventh-month low of 0.7% to 0.8% in January. The reading was in line with what market analysts had expected. Nevertheless, inflation remained well below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 2.0%. Overall inflation declined from December’s 0.3% to an over one-year low of 0.2% in January.

Core inflation in the Ku-area of Tokyo rose from December’s 0.9% to 1.1% in January. Data for February will be released on 1 March.

Japan Inflation Forecast

The median inflation forecast among BoJ members is 1.9% for FY 2019 and 2.0% for FY 2020, including the effects of the consumption tax hike. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 1.2% in calendar year 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel sees inflation at 1.6%.