Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

The economy seems to be faring well despite the fraught external backdrop, with available data pointing to a healthy end to the first quarter. Industrial activity rebounded in February and surged in March, while retail sales growth improved in the two months, although averaged lower in the quarter compared to Q4 2018. Turning to Q2, while both the manufacturing and services PMIs fell in April, the losses were moderate and the readings indicated solid expansions in the sectors nonetheless. On the downside, consumers turned more pessimistic in the same month over their personal finances and the general economic conditions in the year ahead. This was despite unemployment tumbling to an over 12-year low and bodes poorly for household spending. In other news, recently released fiscal figures for 2018 affirmed the high dependence of the Irish state on multinationals for revenue, which poses a risk to the outlook in the long-term.

Ireland Economic Growth

Growth is expected to slide this year. Export performance will weaken in tandem with the Eurozone’s slowdown, while domestic demand will lose traction as growth in government spending falls on attempts to balance the budget. Private consumption and fixed investment are also seen losing pace amid Brexit uncertainty. The main downside risk to the outlook remains a disorderly Brexit. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.0% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

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Ireland Facts

Bond Yield-0.090.27 %Jun 20
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 20
Stock Market6,203-0.39 %Jun 20

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