Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

May 5, 2020

The backdrop has further darkened at the outset of the second quarter, after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the economy in the first quarter. Both the services and manufacturing PMI fell to over one-decade lows in March and April, respectively, as international demand collapsed due to the virus. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose to a 15-month high in March and the number of people claiming jobless benefits soared as lockdown measures forced many industries and businesses to suspend activity. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment logged its worst reading since October 2008 in April as households grew increasingly pessimistic over their personal finances and the general outlook for the economy. After announcing a comprehensive stimulus package at the end of March amounting to around 2% of GDP to mitigate the economic fallout, the government has extended lockdown measures until at least 5 May and is currently reviewing an exit strategy.

Ireland Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting this year as the coronavirus pandemic will deal a heavy blow to the economy. Lockdown measures will depress domestic demand and increase unemployment, while bruised global demand will supress the external sector. Although fiscal and monetary policy stimulus should provide some support, prolonged social-distancing measures pose a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 6.1% in 2020, which is down 3.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 5.5%.

Ireland Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)4.74.74.84.84.9
GDP per capita (EUR)41,74455,75656,94561,56966,320
GDP (EUR bn)195263272297324
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.625.23.78.18.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.416.320.6-0.6-8.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.43.25.23.03.4
Investment (annual variation in %)18.552.650.8-6.8-21.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)14.639.34.19.210.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)14.633.218.41.1-2.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)20.944.42.1-2.50.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.310.87.53.93.8
Unemployment Rate11.910.08.46.75.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-1.9-0.7-0.30.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)10476.773.967.863.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-0.30.2-0.20.50.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.30.0-0.20.30.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.37.20.40.8-2.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)15.130.0-4.08.0-22.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.14.4-4.20.510.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)2.111.6-11.41.534.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)30.642.644.739.948.8

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Ireland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.090.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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