Ireland Economic Outlook
July 23, 2019Growth surged in the first quarter on stronger private consumption and a rebound in government spending. The external sector also boosted the economy, despite weaker export growth, as a marked cutback in fixed investment translated into a slump in imports. Growth seems to have moderated in the second quarter, however. Despite employment gains, retail sales growth was weaker, on average, in April–May. This signals a softer upturn in household consumption amid a dip in consumer confidence and higher inflation. Moreover, the industrial sector stumbled in April–May, while the manufacturing PMI fell throughout the quarter and swung into contractionary territory in June. That said, a pick-up in export growth in the first two months of Q2, along with solid activity in the services sector, likely cushioned the moderation.
Ireland Economic GrowthA less supportive external environment is seen weighing significantly on the Irish economy this year, with the Eurozone’s slowdown and Brexit uncertainty smashing export growth. Meanwhile, fiscal tightening, subdued consumer confidence and weak business sentiment are expected to restrain domestic demand. A disorderly Brexit remains the main risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.
Ireland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||-0.20||0.27 %||Jul 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.11||0.65 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||6,111||-0.39 %||Jul 31|
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Ireland Economic News
August 6, 2019
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index fell 9.0% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms in June, contrasting a revised 3.1% rise in May (previously reported: +2.5% month-on-month).
Ireland: Services PMI slides in July as export sales contract at the sharpest rate in nine years amid Brexit uncertainty
August 6, 2019
Business activity in the Irish service sector lost traction again in July, reflected by a drop in the AIB service Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 55.0 from 56.9 in June.
July 11, 2019
The economy accelerated notably in the first quarter, with GDP growth in quarter-on-quarter and seasonally-adjusted terms jumping to 2.4% from the 0.3% expansion in Q4 2018.
July 5, 2019
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index rose 2.5% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms in May, following a 3.4% upturn in April.
July 3, 2019
The Irish service sector remained largely stable in June, as reflected by only a marginal decrease in the AIB service Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 56.9 from 57.0 in May, thus remaining comfortably above the critical 50-point threshold that separates improvement from deterioration in business conditions.