Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

June 26, 2018

Available indicators for the outset of the second quarter signal that the economy remained on course for another spell of robust growth. Looking at hard data, industrial production and retail sales rebounded in April, while labor shortages continued to buttress wages, propping up household spending amid subdued inflation. Moreover, the external sector’s performance improved in April as exports surged. Signaling more buoyant economic conditions, consumer confidence climbed in May, and the manufacturing and services PMI also edged higher. Regarding Brexit, the Irish border remains the thorniest issue in negotiations. Addressing British MPs on 20 June, the European Parliament’s chief Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, stressed that Theresa May’s proposal for a temporary customs “backstop” to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland would not be accepted.

Ireland Economic Growth

The economy is set to grow at a strong pace again this year, supported by an expected rebound in domestic demand amid accommodative monetary conditions. Moreover, a strengthening labor market should aid a pick-up in private consumption. Volatility in national accounts figures is expected to continue in the near-term, however, due to the role of multinational corporations. Meanwhile, elevated risks to the outlook continue to stem from Brexit. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 5.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, then slow to 3.3% growth in 2019.

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Ireland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.530.27 %Jul 11
Exchange Rate1.170.65 %Jul 11
Stock Market6,945-0.39 %Jul 11

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Ireland Economic News

  • Ireland: Services PMI rises to four-month high in May

    June 6, 2018

    The Investec services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to a four-month high of 59.3 in May, up from 58.4 in April, thanks to a buoyant economic landscape and more favorable weather conditions.

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  • Ireland: Industrial production records strong expansion in April

    June 5, 2018

    The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index rose 9.2% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, contrasting a 7.4% month-on-month contraction in March.

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  • Ireland: Consumer sentiment improves in May

    June 5, 2018

    The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index climbed to 106.7 points in May, up from 104.0 points in April, recovering two-thirds of the drop in the previous month.

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  • Ireland: Manufacturing PMI inches up to 38-month high in May

    June 1, 2018

    The Investec manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 55.4 points in May from 55.3 points in April, reflecting improved business conditions in the manufacturing sector.

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  • Ireland: Consumer sentiment deteriorates in April

    May 11, 2018

    The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index slid to a five-month low of 104.0 points in April from 108.1 points in March, continuing a “see-saw pattern” of improving confidence in one month followed by weaker confidence in the next month in a rapidly changing and uncertain economic setting due to the threat of a potential trade war, along with Brexit. April’s loss of consumer confidence reflected increased strains on household finances, underpinned by higher energy costs and restrained wage growth.

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