Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

July 23, 2019

Growth surged in the first quarter on stronger private consumption and a rebound in government spending. The external sector also boosted the economy, despite weaker export growth, as a marked cutback in fixed investment translated into a slump in imports. Growth seems to have moderated in the second quarter, however. Despite employment gains, retail sales growth was weaker, on average, in April–May. This signals a softer upturn in household consumption amid a dip in consumer confidence and higher inflation. Moreover, the industrial sector stumbled in April–May, while the manufacturing PMI fell throughout the quarter and swung into contractionary territory in June. That said, a pick-up in export growth in the first two months of Q2, along with solid activity in the services sector, likely cushioned the moderation.

Ireland Economic Growth

A less supportive external environment is seen weighing significantly on the Irish economy this year, with the Eurozone’s slowdown and Brexit uncertainty smashing export growth. Meanwhile, fiscal tightening, subdued consumer confidence and weak business sentiment are expected to restrain domestic demand. A disorderly Brexit remains the main risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

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Ireland Facts

Bond Yield-0.200.27 %Jul 31
Exchange Rate1.110.65 %Jul 31
Stock Market6,111-0.39 %Jul 31

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