Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

December 20, 2019

Economic activity rebounded in the third quarter, after having contracted in the second quarter. Q3’s upturn was underpinned by a positive contribution from net trade as export growth held stable and imports contracted amid falling purchases of intellectual property products. On the domestic side, government expenditure picked up pace in Q3, while household spending remained subdued despite improving and fixed investment contracted. Turning to the fourth quarter, available data is mixed. Manufacturing output fell in October and the manufacturing PMI fell back into negative territory in November. In contrast, the services PMI rose to a three-month high in November on the back of firmer demand. In the same month, consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months as households’ expectations for the coming year turned less pessimistic.

Ireland Economic Growth

Growth is seen easing next year on shrinking domestic demand and a weaker trade performance. Private consumption is expected to lose pace, while fixed investment is seen falling. Brexit, coupled with potential overheating due to a low unemployment rate and diminishing spare capacity, pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2021.

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Ireland Facts

Bond Yield-0.090.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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