Ireland Economic Forecast

Ireland Economic Outlook

September 29, 2020

The economy dived at a historic rate in Q2 as strict lockdown measures slammed household and capital spending, while muted global demand squeezed exports. Turning to Q3, incoming data hints at a recovering, but still frail, economy. Both industrial output and retail sales logged robust expansions in July following the easing of restrictions. Moreover, in August, the manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory, while the services PMI hit a six-month high, bolstered by a rebound in new businesses. However, consumer sentiment weakened somewhat in August, largely reflecting renewed Covid-19 concerns amid a rising number of new infections. On 18 September, a three-week lockdown was imposed in Dublin, restricting hospitality services and non-essential travel, and posing a downside risk to activity ahead.

Ireland Economic Growth

GDP is set to contract this year due to Covid-19 and associated containment measures, although fiscal and monetary stimulus should cushion the fall somewhat. A potential second wave of virus cases clouds the outlook. In 2021, the economy is seen rebounding as global demand recovers from the pandemic. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 5.2% in 2020. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 4.7%, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Ireland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)4.74.84.84.95.0
GDP per capita (EUR)55,75656,94561,56966,32070,145
GDP (EUR bn)263272297324347
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)25.23.78.18.25.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)16.320.6-0.6-8.635.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.25.23.03.42.8
Investment (annual variation in %)52.650.8-6.8-21.194.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)39.34.19.210.411.1
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)33.218.41.1-2.935.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)44.32.1-2.5-4.82.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)10.87.63.93.72.1
Unemployment Rate9.98.46.75.85.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-0.7-0.30.10.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)76.773.867.763.558.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.2-0.20.50.81.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.0-0.20.30.70.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)7.20.40.8-2.4-5.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)30.0-4.08.0-22.131.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.4-4.20.510.7-9.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)11.6-11.41.534.3-32.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)42.644.739.948.862.5

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Ireland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.090.27 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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