Hungary Industry February 2021

Hungary

Hungary: Industrial production swings to expansion in February

April 8, 2021

Industrial output increased 3.9% year-on-year in February (January: -2.8% yoy) and marked the strongest rise since November 2019, according to a preliminary estimate.

On a monthly basis, industrial output jumped 4.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms in February, following January’s 0.2% uptick and marking the strongest reading in 16 months. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 7.4% in February, from January's minus 7.5% reading.

Commenting on the short-term outlook, Peter Virovacz, senior Hungary economist, stated:

“Looking forward, March probably was challenging for the manufacturers. Besides the still present supply-side issues, the Ever Given fiasco in the Suez Canal might also impact local parts of the global supply chains. On top of all that, the full lockdown from March due to the third wave of Covid-19 could cause labour issues as schools and kindergartens are closed (and won’t open until mid-April at the earliest). The second quarter is expected to bring a huge jump because of base effects and the PMI trend is also pointing north, suggesting further improvements in production.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project industrial output to increase 7.4% in 2021, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2022, the panel projects industrial output to expand 4.8%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Hungary Industry February 2021 0

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Hungarian Central Statistics Office and FocusEconomics calculations.


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