Guatemala GDP Q1 2018

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economic growth slows to multi-year low in the first quarter of 2018 on a broad-based slowdown

July 9, 2018

In the first quarter of the year, the economy grew at the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2010, according to recently released national accounts data. Reflecting softer domestic demand, economic growth decelerated to 2.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, markedly below the prior quarter’s 2.9% increase.

Private consumption slowed from a 3.6% expansion in the fourth quarter of last year to a 3.0% increase in the first quarter of this year, likely influenced by a slowdown in remittances growth; in the first quarter, remittances increased 4.0% over the same period a year earlier (Q4: +11.2% year-on-year). Furthermore, the pace of growth in government consumption nearly halved, from 6.0% in Q4 to 3.1%. In the fourth quarter, government consumption had risen robustly due to the completion of public sector maintenance and repairs. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth was virtually unchanged from the previous quarter (Q1 2018: +1.8% yoy; Q4 2017: +1.9% yoy).

Both exports and imports contracted over the previous year in the first quarter. Exports of goods and services dropped 2.6%, contrasting the prior quarter’s 0.4% expansion. The contraction came on the back of lower foreign demand for nickel, sugar, oil, bananas, edible fats and oils, and rubber. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services fell 2.4%, markedly down from the previous quarter’s robust 1.6% increase. This was chiefly due to lower demand for consumption goods, fuels and lubricants, and construction materials.

Looking ahead, the economy is expected to accelerate slightly on the back of robust remittance inflows, which should spur private consumption, as well as a pick-up in government expenditure growth.

Guatemala GDP Forecast


Banguat expects growth of between 3.0%–3.8% in 2018 and 3.1%–4.1% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth of 3.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, our panelists expect growth to clock in at 3.3%.


Author:, Economist

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Guatemala? Download a sample report now.

Download

Guatemala GDP Chart


Guatemala GDP Q1 2018

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast


Guatemala Economic News

  • Guatemala: Inflation drops in June

    July 10, 2018

    Consumer prices in Guatemala increased 0.57% in June over the prior month, accelerating from May’s 0.47% increase.

    Read more

  • Guatemala: Economic activity growth accelerates in May

    July 6, 2018

    Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that economic activity growth sped up in May from the prior month’s revised 0.1% increase (previously reported: -0.7% month-on-month) to 0.4%. On a year-on-year trend-cycle basis, growth in economic activity edged up from the prior month’s revised 2.7% (previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year) to 2.8% in May.

    Read more

  • Guatemala: Economic activity continues to increase at the outset of the second quarter

    June 8, 2018

    Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that in April economic activity contracted 0.7% from the prior month, a sharper downturn than March’s 0.1% drop. On a year-on-year basis, however, growth in economic activity edged up from the prior month’s revised 2.6% (previously reported: +3.0% year-on-year) to 2.8% in April.

    Read more

  • Guatemala: Inflation picks up in May

    June 8, 2018

    Consumer prices in Guatemala increased 0.47% in May over the prior month, accelerating from April’s fractional price increase of 0.04%.

    Read more

More news

Search form