Guatemala Economic Activity September 2022

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economic activity growth deteriorates in September

November 17, 2022

Economic activity grew 4.0% year on year in September (August: +4.5% yoy). The deceleration came despite robust growth in the trade and repair of vehicles, real estate, construction, manufacturing and financial services sectors.

Meanwhile, the underlying momentum is likely weakening, with the annual average growth moderating for the seventh consecutive month to 4.3% (August: +4.4%).

Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook:

“[We] expect GDP growth to decelerate to 2.4% in 2023, from an estimated 3.6% in 2022, with risks tilted to the downside. We expect growth to average 3.3% in 2024-27, but there are several risks to this projection. One is a steeper than forecast downturn in the US the next two years. Another is that global (and hence local) inflation fails to ease as expected, eroding consumer purchasing power more than we anticipate.”

GDP is seen expanding 3.0% in 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2024, our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4%.


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Guatemala Economic Activity September 2022 0

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity in %.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.


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