Germany: Consumer sentiment expected to rise markedly in July
June 25, 2021
The GfK consumer climate index is expected to rise significantly at the outset of the third quarter, with the index anticipated to increase to minus 0.3 in July from minus 6.9 in June. July’s print would mark the best result since August 2020. The improvement in the headline is likely supported by the exiting of lockdown amid a notable drop in new Covid-19 infections.
The headline reading was underpinned by backward-looking data for June, which is released at the same time and showed a marked jump in economic expectations and income expectations. The latter returned to pre-pandemic levels, as the subindex reached it highest level since February last year. Furthermore, the relaxation of lockdown measures will see a number of workers exit the short-time work scheme, boosting income levels and expectations. Consequently, propensity to buy also rose, albeit more modestly.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist