Germany: Consumer sentiment expected to deteriorate in September
August 26, 2021
The GfK consumer climate index is forecast to drop to minus 1.2 in September from minus 0.4 in August on the back of a slowdown in the vaccination drive as well as domestic discussion over how to deal with unvaccinated individuals going forward. Uncertainty spiked as a consequence and this, coupled with inflation fears, weighs on confidence.
Backward-looking data for August, which is released at the same time and underpins the September expectation, showed that consumers’ views on economic expectations declined, although they remained optimistic. That said, consumers expect the momentum of the German economy to slow. On the other hand, income expectations rose in the month as stable employment data and low fears of job losses underpin expectations. Despite this, consumers’ propensity to buy dropped despite excess savings; mandatory mask use and distancing measures make shopping somewhat of a hassle, which coupled with a notable increase in the price level, likely dragged on consumers’ willingness to part ways with their money.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist